2025 Upland Gamebird Forecast: Email Update
This update to our 2025 Upland Gamebird Hunting Forecast incorporates the results of late summer upland gamebird population surveys conducted by state fish and wildlife agencies. This data measures recruitment of birds into the fall population, providing a more finely tuned forecast than was possible at press time for the print magazine in mid-July.
The moment in which the wishful thinking of upland gamebird hunters can be transformed into full-on planning of fall adventures has arrived. The state fish and wildlife agencies that conduct late summer roadside or brood surveys recently released the data from those all-important surveys.
The remarkable hunting of the last couple of years left many of us with a growing level of anticipation, even expectation, that we might experience a season of grandeur this fall. The table was set with a mild winter across the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, and the return of summer moisture in the Southern High Plains. When we went to press with our print magazine 2025 Upland Gamebird Forecast in late July, there was one burning question with two possible outcomes. Would we see next-level growth in upland game populations? Or, in the colorful terms of RJ Gross, North Dakota Game & Fish Department, would the promising prospects evolve into a summer of what could have been?
That question was answered the way it usually is across the country, with some of both outcomes. However, the results from the states with the highest populations of pheasants and bobwhites were largely positive and downright exciting!
Here are some highlights: Pheasant numbers are off the charts in Iowa with the highest counts in over 20 years, resulting in a projected harvest of up to 700,000 roosters; pheasant populations are at dizzying levels in southwestern Minnesota and up substantially in portions of North Dakota and Kansas; quail populations in Texas are approaching the highest levels since the 2015-2017 explosion; and bobwhite counts spiked this year in key regions of Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska.
It will be a grand year to chase pheasants and bobwhites in the nation’s heartland! Here’s the full breakdown from the states that conduct summer surveys. As is our tradition, we emphasize pheasants as the #1 species for our PDJ readership.
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Pheasants
This will be the year to hunt pheasants in Iowa! This season marks the 100th anniversary of pheasant hunting in the Hawkeye State, and it will be a grand campaign! The August roadside survey revealed a statewide pheasant index of 28.1 birds/route, which represents a whopping 43 percent increase over last year and 41 percent above the 10-year trend, says Todd Bogenschutz, Iowa Department of Natural Resources.
The index was higher than last year’s solid mark in all nine regions of the state. The Northwest, North-Central, Northeast, West-Central, Central, and Southeast regions of the state had the highest densities, but hunters will experience higher pheasant populations in all regions. The high counts are directly explained by Iowa DNR’s weather model and the near-perfect conditions of last winter and this spring. The 2024-25 winter statewide snowfall was half of normal levels at only 12.8 inches for the entire winter. Next, an ideal spring with warm temperatures and below average precipitation provided excellent conditions during the nesting and brood-rearing seasons. The Iowa DNR pheasant model predicts population increases under such conditions but what makes this year remarkable is that the winter snowfall was so much less than normal. Past radio-telemetry research in Iowa shows overwinter hen survival averages around 60-65 percent but can exceed 90 percent in mild winters. As the fourth least snowy winter in 138 years, this was a mild winter for the ages. Bogenschutz, one of the nation’s foremost pheasant experts, attributes the extraordinary population spike to a mild winter that resulted in exceptional over-winter pheasant survival followed by a normal spring, all of which was coming off the best two pheasant harvest years in the last two decades.
The northern third of the state looks particularly good with populations increasing by 39 percent to 69 percent across the three northern regions, and all three regions showed significant increases in total hens and chicks compared to 2024. Bogenschutz reports that the counts in the Northwest region were the best seen in 25 years, counts in the North-Central region were the best in 17 years, and the Northeast region count was the best seen in 27 years. Exceptional hunting is expected in Clay, Emmet, Dickinson, Palo Alto, Osceola, Butler, Hancock, Kossuth, Bremer, Chickasaw, Howard, and Winneshiek counties. Load up the bird dogs!
This will certainly be a year to remember for pheasant hunting in Iowa, according to Bogenschutz: “Pheasant hunters should have good to excellent hunting this fall given the 2025 counts and hunters harvesting around half a million roosters each of the past two years. The 2025 statewide pheasant index is the highest count we’ve seen in over 20 years. We expect a harvest of 600,000 – 700,000 roosters this fall. It looks like hunters will have an exceptional fall in the Hawkeye State. And one more bit of good news: Crop harvest looks like it will be wrapped up early so virtually all crops should be harvested by the start of the hunting season. It should be one heck of an opening day to celebrate the 100th year of pheasant hunting in Iowa!”
It’s a similar story in Minnesota as pheasant populations increased dramatically. The August roadside survey revealed a survey-wide pheasant index (75.2 birds per 100 miles) that was 47 percent higher than in 2024 and in the ballpark of the 1955-2025 long-term average mark of 88 birds per 100 miles, according to Minnesota DNR. These are Minnesota pheasant numbers that harken back to the good old days! The pheasant boom stemmed from a good hatch last year, a mild winter with minimal snow that resulted in high over-winter pheasant survival, and a warm and dry spring that created excellent conditions for nesting and early brood-rearing. A deeper dive into the roadside survey data yields some even more exciting regional nuggets.
The survey revealed a staggering 152 pheasants per 100 miles in the Southwest region, a mark that is 40 percent higher than the long-term average. Populations were also very high in the South-Central and West-Central regions at 82 and 76 birds per 100 miles, respectively. In the Southeast region, the index increased by 189 percent from last year’s levels. The indices in all regions are above the 10-year average. The statewide chick-per-brood ratio of 4.0 is on par with last year, but below the long-term average. Nevertheless, it’s abundantly clear from the data that pheasant populations in the southern and central regions will be at some of the best levels in recent years this fall.
Kansas will also offer some outstanding hunting as pheasant populations continue to grow after a solid production year in 2024. This summer’s brood survey revealed a 16 percent increase in pheasant numbers statewide, according to Jeff Predergast, Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks & Tourism. However, the big news was what happened in the central portion of the state. In the Smoky Hills region, the pheasant index doubled from 0.16 pheasants per mile last year to 0.32 pheasants per mile this summer. The counts also revealed a 30 percent increase in the South-Central Prairies region. Populations dipped slightly but remained strong in the Northern High Plains and Southern High Plains regions.
Prendergast explains that populations spiked in the High Plains regions of western Kansas in 2024, but weather conditions weren’t nearly as favorable last year in the central regions. This summer’s rains provided much needed recovery from the last drought in the central regions, and pheasant populations exploded in the Smoky Hills. Most of the state was well above average on summer precipitation, but there were a few areas in the High Plains that were drier and pheasant densities declined in those areas. Pheasant densities are now almost identical at the regional scale among the Smoky Hills, Northern High Plains, and Southern High Plains. Prendergast notes that they saw more consistent pheasant densities throughout the primary pheasant range that should facilitate increased harvest in 2025.
Hunters will have a very good season across both the central and western portions of the state, predicts Prendergast: “We saw major increases in pheasant densities in some key regions this year. Populations had been down for several years and aren’t likely to fully recover in a single year, but the increases should result in some of the best hunting we’ve had in a number of years.”
In Nebraska, this summer’s production appears to be a mixed bag based on the July Rural Mail Carrier Survey results, according to the Nebraska Game & Parks Commission. The Sandhills region experienced a major uptick in pheasant numbers (+189 percent) from last year, the Central region was up slightly (+9 percent) and 80 percent above the five-year average, and the Northeast region was similar to last year and the five-year average. The Southwest region, which supports the highest pheasant densities in the state, received great summer rains in 2024 and had high pheasant numbers this spring, but the July surveys revealed an eight percent decline from last year. Nevertheless, it will offer some great hunting this fall based on numbers coming into the spring and generally good conditions this summer. The Panhandle has the second highest densities in the state, but the July surveys revealed a 23 percent decline, and the Southeast region was down 38 percent compared to 2024.
The rainfall patterns this summer produced good habitat conditions. However, the state experienced some severe weather with hailstorms and heavy rains. The pheasant survey data shows lots of variability in chick and brood sizes, indicative that some nests were destroyed and hens had to re-nest and some chicks were lost due to the erratic weather events. The upside is that insects appear to be very abundant, providing a key food source for young chicks. The key take-home from Nebraska is that the observations and improved habitat conditions point to a successful year for pheasant production and improved populations again this fall.
The pheasant news from North Dakota is perhaps the most interesting of the major pheasant states in that it can be taken at extreme, wonderful or disappointing, depending upon the lens. Starting with the background, hunters had an exceptional season in 2024, harvesting over 357,000 roosters, the winter was mild and over-winter pheasant survival was exceptional, and spring conditions were generally favorable. According to Gross, North Dakota GFD, this summer’s brood surveys yielded a statewide average of 91.6 pheasants per 100 miles, which was down only three percent from last year and is 48 percent above the 10-year average. Three of the four regions of the state experienced higher populations than last year.
Teasing out the nuances of this flat-line North Dakota pheasant population outcome requires a deep dive into the numbers. The Northwest region, which was outstanding last year, was drier this summer and the counts revealed 14.7 broods and 115 pheasants per 100 miles, down from 20.8 broods and 164 pheasants in 2024. The average brood size was 4.3. However, the southwestern part of the state received incredible summer rainfall and production was very good. The surveys showed 14.8 broods and 125 pheasants per 100 miles, up from 13.8 broods and 119 pheasants in 2024, with average brood size as an impressive 5.8 chicks. The Southeast region had 9.6 broods and 73 pheasants per 100 miles, an increase from the 7.9 broods and 57 pheasants in 2024. In the Northeast region, the area with the most limited pheasant habitat, the results were identical to last year with 37 pheasants per 100 miles.
Gross explains that the state was poised for something remarkable and memorable that could have occurred with better summer moisture: “It will always be the summer of ‘what could have been’ to me. We were set up perfectly for a boom hatch of new pheasants, but Mother Nature wins in the end. We did have some areas that had an above average hatch and the high numbers of adults spread across the state should give hunters plenty of roosters to chase this fall.”
In Wisconsin, the new app-based upland gamebird observation survey technique yielded a statewide average of 5.03 pheasant chicks per brood, similar to the 5.32 mark in 2024, according to Chris Pollentier, Wisconsin DNR. Excessive rainfall during key stretches of the breeding season likely resulted in a slight decline in pheasant production this year.
The final piece of the pheasant puzzle is South Dakota. Harvest has increased in the #1 pheasant state in the nation for five consecutive years, capped by a staggering tally of 1.31 million roosters last season. However, the state no longer conducts pheasant surveys, so we have nothing to report relative to production this spring and summer.
Prairie Grouse and Huns
The incredible run of prairie grouse and partridge population increases across the northern Great Plains may have finally run its course, but there will still be some good hunting available in portions of the range.
South Dakota remains the top prairie grouse destination state following a remarkable campaign in which hunters harvested over 99,000 prairie grouse last year for an average of 5.15 birds per hunter, the highest marks in a quarter century, reported Alex Solem, South Dakota Game, Fish & Parks. The state does not conduct summer brood surveys, and a mention technically isn’t warranted in this e-blast, but the extraordinary level of the prairie grouse population calls for some attention.
The phenomenal year of 2024 was followed by a mild winter that likely resulted in excellent over-winter survival. The state was subsequently drought-free most of this summer, which should result in another excellent year of prairie grouse production, according to Solem, though there could have been localized impacts from hail and excessive rainfall: “Much of the prairie grouse range had good weather during the nesting and brood/rearing season. Like many summers, areas of local severe weather or heavy rains could always reduce nest success or chick survival. It’s always best to check with local residents about particular areas.”
South Dakota GFP’s 2025 lek surveys in partnership with the U.S. Forest Service on the Fort Pierre National Grassland showed a 40 percent increase in lekking males from the previous year, the highest mark in the 50 years the survey has been conducted. The weather patterns and population trends add up to a very intriguing year to hunt prairie grouse in South Dakota. It is possible that 2025 could be even better than last year’s outstanding season.
In North Dakota, sharptails declined by 38 percent statewide on the summer brood survey and are now 30 percent below the 10-year average, according to Jesse Kolar, North Dakota DFG. The surveys recorded only 2.1 broods per 100 miles with an average brood size of 4.4. It will be a tough year for sharptail hunters, says Kolar: “This might be a good year to enjoy the scenery while your dogs work. It’s been a frustratingly sparse year for sharptails, and hunters have been packing up and moving frequently, trying to find any area with good numbers. Although there are a few isolated places where numbers are okay, hunters shouldn’t get their hopes up for more than a couple singles or small coveys in a long day of hunting.”
Huns were also down by 26 percent in North Dakota, but that was coming off an excellent year in 2024, and the summer brood survey showed an average of 8.1 partridge chicks per brood. Kolar expects that hunters will have better success with Huns than sharptails this year.
In Iowa, the roadside survey showed that Huns were up 19 percent statewide from last year, but numbers varied across the state, according to Bogenschutz. The increase for Huns was statistically significant in the Northwest and North-Central regions, which matches the areas with the highest pheasant population spikes. In Nevada, the young-per-adult ratio declined from an impressive 5.50 last year to 2.95 this year but there are still good populations of partridge east of the Santa Rosa Range, along the east side of the Independence Mountains, and public lands north of Wells.
Bobwhite Quail
This will be an outstanding year to chase bobwhite quail in the states with the highest populations! The summer survey data and long-term trends paint an exciting picture of strong bobwhite populations getting even better with substantial increases this year. In many years, summer precipitation and bobwhite production in this region is patchy: some good, some cursed by drought. This year is different in that the pattern of excellent summer rainfall and strong quail recruitment was widespread across the western portion of the bobwhite range.
Oklahoma stands out as a very intriguing quail destination this year. The August roadside quail survey showed a statewide quail index of 4.98 quail per route, a whopping 40.7 percent above the 10-year trend average of 3.54 quail per route and only 1.6 percent below the 36-year average of 5.06 quail per route, according to Tell Judkins, Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation. Furthermore, Judkins expects the October surveys to reveal even higher numbers due to the steady rains the state received all summer. The last 180-day period, in which some regions received up to 180 percent of normal rainfall, is recorded as the fourth wettest in Oklahoma history. Judkins notes that the October survey has proven in the past to be a more accurate measure of bird numbers during the hunting season than the August survey, so, if his hunch is correct, this could be a year for the ages in Oklahoma.
In Texas, quail populations in the Rolling Plains and the South Texas Plains held steady from a good year last year and are both above the 15-year mean, reported Patrick Schutz, Texas Parks and Wildlife Department. The survey revealed 12.70 quail per route in the South Texas Plains region compared to 9.78 last year. This year’s index is the highest mark since 2019 and on par with the exceptional years of 2016-2017. Hunters harvest over 291,000 bobwhites last year in South Texas, so this looks to be an excellent season. Schutz says that their biologists are reporting good bobwhite numbers in Brooks, Hall, Kenedy, Shackelford, and Willacy counties. The summer surveys revealed slightly increased population.
In the Rolling Plains, excellent summer rainfall created great nesting and brood-rearing conditions. The survey showed 15.32 quail per route, down slightly from 16.50 last year, but portions of the Rolling Plains should have exceptional quail numbers this season. Hunters harvested over 135,000 bobwhites in the Rolling Plains last year, nearly three times the five-year harvest average. The Teacup Mountain Wildlife Management Area offers new public hunting opportunities this year and the biologists are reporting good numbers of quail.
Schutz is very optimistic about South Texas and the Rolling Plains: “We had good carryover throughout the state. The habitat conditions and above average rainfall provided for improved nesting and brood rearing habitat across most of the bobwhite range. Although the Rolling Plains appears similar to last year, reports suggest many areas in this ecoregion have above-average bobwhite numbers. South Texas remains a stronghold and bobwhite populations increase the farther south you go within this region. Expectations are high based on the quality conditions, and we anticipate good hunting opportunities going into the 2025-26 season.”
Kansas remains one of the top quail states in the nation with quail densities above the 30-year average. The summer surveys showed a 50 percent statewide increase in bobwhite populations, says Prendergast. Following good conditions and a major spike in quail numbers in the southern portion of the state in 2024, this summer’s rainfall created more widespread ideal conditions. Quail numbers increased by a statistically significant 84 percent in the Smoky Hills and 75 percent in the Southern High Plains. Quail numbers in the South-Central Prairies also increased by 132 percent from last year. The quail densities in the Smoky Hills are still lower than in some other regions, but this uptick represents notable improvement. Here’s my quail tip for this season: There’s a lot to like about the bobwhite outlook in the Southern High Plains!
In Iowa, the statewide bobwhite quail index increased by 123 percent from 0.47 quail per route in 2024 to 1.1 quail per route this year, bringing the statewide quail index to its highest level since 2018, according to Bogenschutz. The index is 15 percent above the 10-year average and only 19 percent below the long-term average. The counts increased significantly in the Southwest and South-Central regions, and the Southwest region reported the best overall quail numbers in the state. In Nebraska, it was a mixed bag with quail declining in some regions and expanding in others for a statewide index that was down two percent from last year based on the July Rural Mail Carrier Survey, according to Nebraska GFP. The intriguing element of the Nebraska report is that quail numbers expanded by 21 and 27 percent in the two regions with highest quail densities, the East Central and Republican regions, respectively.
Chukars
The chukar prognosis annually hinges on rainfall and the subsequent green-up of the high desert mountain ranges of the Great Basin. Chukar populations can explode rapidly under ideal weather conditions but, unfortunately, this wasn’t one of those years. Nevertheless, there will still be some decent chukar hunting available this season.
In Nevada, chukar populations declined by 77 percent statewide, according to the extensive surveys conducted by the Nevada Department of Wildlife. The surveys revealed only 1.1 young-per-adult, down from the 2024 value of 4.8 chicks per adult. A production value higher than 4.5 chicks per adult generally yields an increasing population, so this year’s low production value means that there will be very few young birds in the population. However, the good news is that the survey revealed strong overall chukar numbers, indicating that adult carry-over was excellent. The 2025 survey yielded 4,849 total chukars, very close to the 4,966 birds observed in the good year of 2023 and double that of the 2,337 birds counted in 2022.
The bright spot from a production standpoint was Humboldt County with 206 chukars counted and a 4.6 young-per-adult ratio. Pershing County (1,529 chukars surveyed) and Elk County (1,105 chukars) had strong carry-over of adult birds but the young-per-adult rations of 0.5 and 1.8, respectively, indicate dismal production this breeding season. Eureka County had 3.3 young per adult and 748 chukars surveyed so the consensus from NDOW was that there was enough production that coveys should be approachable, especially early in the season. Nevada suffered some devastating rangeland fires this summer so avoid hunting those recently burned areas to reduce pressure on wildlife and habitat.
