2022 Upland Gamebird Hunting Forecast
Photo by Larry Kruckenberg
Favorable weather patterns might make this a season to remember for upland gamebird hunters in some regions.
by Dave Smith
The age-old debate in upland gamebird hunting circles is whether to spend lots of time studying weather patterns and gamebird population trends, or to simply load up the bird dogs and go hunting.
There’s a solid case to be made for both approaches. Predicting fall gamebird populations is far from a perfect science, particularly at press time in late July, and each year there are notable surprises in the fall harvest from what is reported even at the end of the summer when all the surveys have been completed. However, even when the predictions hold dead true, the impacts of weather patterns on bird populations can vary by county and even within a few miles.
For example, the extreme drought that gripped much of eastern Montana last summer led the experts to (accurately) predict steep declines for upland gamebirds. Rooted in ritual and place, and highly connected to a couple counties in my home state, I spent many hours studying summer precipitation patterns in those counties and zeroed into a couple of blocks that received decent summer rains. The digital time paid dividends with excellent sharptail hunting on our annual 2021 Labor Day trip to the prairies. Was it a great overall year for sharptail hunters in eastern Montana? Not really, but some fine-scale planning paid off in a big way.
This is shaping up to be one of those years that desk time can make a big difference in autumn outcomes. The theme headed into the fall is that this will be one of the best years of upland gamebird hunting in some states and very tough in others.
In 2022, pheasants are the national draw – not to mention the most popular gamebird PDJ readers pursue, followed by ruffed grouse – and it should be an outstanding year for ringneck hunters. Four of the most important pheasant states – South Dakota, Iowa, North Dakota, and Minnesota – experienced outstanding weather conditions over the last year to help grow already strong populations. What’s more: Ruffed grouse populations are stable to increasing in the Lake States during, get this, the down-phase of the 10-year cycle; bobwhite quail numbers are up in the Deep South and Midwest; and it could be a great year to chase prairie grouse in the northern Great Plains.
So, whether you plan to hunt only in your home state or are a highly mobile traveling wingshooter inclined to long treks, this is a year to do your homework.
The upland gamebird brood surveys conducted by the state fish and wildlife agencies in late July and August will crystallize the fall outlook. We’ll follow up in early September with on an online Upland Gamebird Forecast e-blast and an updated set of projections.
Pheasants
Photo by Larry Kruckenberg
South Dakota will lead the nation in harvest by a wide margin again this fall. Despite a rugged summer in which drought gripped much of the pheasant range, hunters harvested an impressive 1,067,423 pheasants last year, nearly identical to the previous year’s harvest and 29 percent higher than the tally back in 2019.
The exciting news is what happened last winter and this spring and summer. According to Travis Runia, South Dakota Game, Fish, and Parks, conditions have been near-perfect. “Pheasant populations have traditionally responded strongly after a mild winter, and that is exactly what South Dakota experienced in 2021-2022. Overwinter pheasant survival was likely excellent, and that means more nesting hens come spring. A reprieve from the 2021 drought occurred over most of the pheasant range, which should provide additional concealment for nesting hens and good cover and insect food for pheasant brood habitat. Overall, we are optimistic for a good hunting season in 2022-2023.”
In Iowa, it’s a similar rosy outlook. According to longtime pheasant expert Todd Bogenschutz, Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR), it could be a year for the ages. Hunters harvested 373,000 pheasants last season, the highest tally since 2008. Better yet, weather conditions were excellent last winter and this spring. Iowa DNR’s weather model, which has been correct in 17 of the last 20 years, shows increases following mild winters with springs that are dryer and warmer than normal. This last winter was extremely mild with only 15.5 inches of snowfall between December and March, 9.7 inches below the 1961-’90 average. Iowa had a similar winter in 2018, and pheasant populations spiked by 18 percent. Further, this spring’s nesting season rainfall was 6.7 inches, about 0.5 inches below the long-term average, although the spring was colder than normal. These weather conditions bode well for a bumper crop of pheasants this fall in the Hawkeye State. Bogenschutz predicts that pheasant populations will be unchanged to perhaps slightly higher for the fall 2022 hunting season. My early take: It’s possible that the 2022 harvest will exceed 400,000 roosters.
Minnesota looks to be another good bet for pheasant hunters. Tim Lyons, Minnesota DNR, reports that spring weather was favorable for an excellent hatch. “Everyone is optimistic! We didn’t have very widespread flooding within the pheasant range, and it’s been warm throughout the nesting and brood-rearing season. Habitat conditions are starting to get dry, but nothing like last summer. There was enough snowfall and spring precipitation to break last year’s drought and provide moisture for vegetation regrowth.” His only concern is that there may be a lot of crops still standing by the opener as a result of planting delays this spring. If so, it may be tough hunting early, but resilient hunters could be rewarded with excellent late season success.
North Dakota is coming off an epic drought that knocked back pheasant populations, but the rains returned this spring and summer. According to R.J. Gross, North Dakota Game & Fish, spring crowing surveys revealed a 22 percent decline statewide, which corresponded with poor juvenile-to-adult ratios in hunter-submitted wings from last season and reduced harvest. However, Gross says spring rains improved the nesting cover dramatically, they received excellent moisture this summer that has resulted in lots of bugs for broods, and that he’s heard reports of large broods of pheasants. My take: NoDak could be the pheasant sleeper state this season!
The Kansas pheasant picture has been murky over the last year, according to Jeff Prendergast, Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks & Tourism. Last summer’s brood surveys showed a declining population, but densities were likely higher than predicted last fall as a result of poor survey conditions. The 2021 pheasant harvest of 338,161 roosters was a 14 percent increase from the previous season. This spring, the pheasant crowing surveys revealed that there was no significant change statewide from last year, but the counts were up seven percent in the South-Central Region. However, Prendergast noted that conditions were very dry through fall and winter, resulting in less residual cover. Late spring moisture improved nesting conditions, but the timing was later then desirable to have the greatest effect. Furthermore, Prendergast suspects chick survival may be a limiting factor this year with extended periods of high heat and dry conditions. This will be a year to pay close attention to the results of the Kansas brood surveys that will be reported in the online update of this forecast in September.
Drought has impacted portions of Nebraska during each of the past three growing seasons, and this year the conditions look tough for pheasant production, says John Laux, Nebraska Game & Parks Commission. Pheasant counts during the April Rural Mail Carrier Survey were lower in all regions, and drought conditions intensified leading up to this year’s nesting season. In early May, 94 percent of the state was experiencing moderate to extreme drought, according to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Drought Monitor. Precipitation has been spotty throughout the summer, but habitat conditions have improved slightly as the nesting season progressed. Laux notes that extremely dry conditions have persisted in Nebraska’s core pheasant range, the Southwest and southern Panhandle regions.
In Colorado, spring pheasant surveys revealed populations 50 percent below where they were in 2018, says Ed Gorman, Colorado Parks & Wildlife. Colorado hunters harvested an all-time low of fewer than 20,000 roosters last season, 60 percent below the harvest in 2016. Gorman explains that this is symptomatic of back to back drought years and less overall habitat on the landscape. Same story in drought-impacted Oklahoma, where spring pheasant survey counts were down compared to last year, says Tell Judkins, Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation. Finally, Montana will likely be a mixed bag for pheasants this season with better populations expected to the east and continued declines expected farther west across the Hi-Line due to persistent drought, according to Kenneth Plourde, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks, Region 6, Northeastern Montana.
Ruffed Grouse
The technical explanation of cyclic ruffed grouse population trends, long-term forest succession changes, West Nile Virus disease vulnerabilities, and weather conditions can be appropriately collapsed into a single suggestion from the ruffed grouse experts: Load up the bird dogs and spend some time in the grouse woods this fall!
Forest conditions have changed in ways that have impacted ruffed grouse dramatically across their range, but the bottom line is that the last couple of years have been good. Wisconsin’s harvest spiked by 34 percent two years ago, and the annual drumming surveys have showed a generally stable population these last two springs; ruffed grouse hunting has been productive in parts of New England with good early successional forests; flush rates turned the corner positively the last two years in Pennsylvania; and Minnesota’s 2022 drumming survey showed an unexpected population spike in the down-phase of the 10-year cycle!
Photo by Jon Osborn
In Wisconsin, this spring’s drumming survey showed a five percent decline statewide from 2021, according to Taylor Finger, Wisconsin DNR, which was to be expected in the declining portion of the Lake States ruffed grouse cycle. However, the counts revealed only a two percent decline in the Northern Region, the third of the state with the best ruffed grouse habitat – indicating essentially flat populations in good ruff country. Finger is optimistic about this fall. “We still have good numbers of birds and lots of hunting opportunity across the state. The winter was mild and although we had a late spring, things caught up and we have had really good nesting conditions. The next month will tell the tale on brood-rearing, but the conditions so far indicate good news for ruffed grouse.”
The picture is even more interesting in Minnesota. This spring’s drumming counts by Minnesota DNR revealed 1.9 drums per stop statewide, a 46 percent spike from last year’s average of 1.3 drums per stop, which was unexpected during the declining phase of the 10-year cycle after the most recent peak in 2017. The survey showed 2.9 drums per stop in the Northwest region, the highest level recorded for that region since the current survey’s analytical methods were established in 1982. The department’s explanation: Warm temperatures and drought conditions during the 2021 breeding season resulted in strong production of young birds last year, which was followed by winter conditions favorable for snow roosting that yielded increased overwinter survival – a doubling up of good fortune.
However, just like the 2021 drumming survey counts didn’t predict last year’s population boom, this year’s high counts may not to translate to more ruffs in the woods this fall, says Charlotte Roy, Minnesota DNR. “May and June 2022 have been much wetter, with widespread flooding and numerous heavy rainfall events throughout much of northern Minnesota, which may adversely affect nest and chick survival in the core of the ruffed grouse range. If this is true, the high spring counts of 2022 may not translate into high fall grouse numbers. In recent years, the drumming survey has not been a reliable predictor of fall hunting experiences.” Nevertheless, here’s my take-home: There were a lot more grouse in the woods this spring than expected given the phase in the 10-year cycle!
In Michigan, ruffed grouse are expected to be stable thanks to good weather conditions this spring and summer, says Adam Bump, Michigan DNR. “Grouse populations should be similar to last year. So far, there haven’t been any widespread weather factors that would have a significant impact on production. Periods of cold, wet conditions at the time of hatching can sometimes impact brood success, and those conditions can be localized, but on a statewide basis I don’t expect negative impacts.”
Maine has offered good ruff hunting in recent years, and weather conditions this breeding season were very favorable. It was a mild spring with no prolonged periods of flooding or heavy rains, which are indicative of good nest success, and summer precipitation was well spaced out, so brood survival was also likely high, says Kelsey Sullivan, Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife. Sullivan reported that the survey counts were average in central Maine and down slightly in the northwest, but lots of broods are being reported in northern Maine this summer.
In New York, the ruffed grouse population is stable statewide, as surveys revealed 0.15 drums per stop, right in line with the last four years, says Josh Stiller, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The drumming rate was highest in the Adirondacks-Tug Hill ecozone (0.74 grouse drumming/hour), followed by the St. Lawrence Valley Ecozone (0.41) and Champlain Valley (0.32).
In Pennsylvania, the ruffed grouse flush rate last hunting season was stable compared to the 2020 flush rate, both of which were higher than the tough years of 2018 and 2019 in which severe West Nile Virus outbreaks impacted the population, says Reina Tyl, Pennsylvania Game Commission. Tyl didn’t have a good read at press time on the severity of the virus this year but explained that if it was modest, they could see an increase in grouse populations and flush rates this fall.
High-quality, thick, gnarly, young forest habitat is clearly the limiting factor for ruffed grouse in Kentucky, says Zak Danks, Kentucky Department of Wildlife Resources, but they are hearing good numbers of drums on their surveys in those habitats, and weather conditions were favorable during the nesting season. Danks captures what it takes to be successful: “Ruffed grouse still occur in true grouse habitat, but finding it takes a lot of scouting, boot leather, persistence, and fortitude!”
And in Ohio, ruffed grouse drumming activity and flush rates remain near historic lows, reported Mark Wiley, Ohio DNR.
Woodcock
Photo by David Kunselman
Woodcock populations were stable from the previous year, according to the 2021 American Woodcock Population Status, released by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service last August, the most recent population status report. However, the 10-year trend (2011-2021) showed a significant decline in both the Eastern and Central Management Regions. Further, woodcock populations have experienced chilling long-term (1968-2021) population declines of 1.00 percent per year in the Eastern Region and 0.92 percent in the Central Region, largely attributed to the loss of early successional forest habitat. The report shows that the top states for woodcock harvest during the 2020-2021 season were Wisconsin (49,300 woodcock), Minnesota (37,400), Michigan (25,000), North Carolina (13,000), and Maine (9,600). State-level insight from woodcock experts indicates woodcock hunting could be very good in some states this year.
Wisconsin should be a good bet for timberdoodles, according to Finger. The Service’s 2021 estimate for woodcock in Wisconsin revealed only a 0.32 percent decline from the long-term average, so woodcock numbers are very stable and have been so for quite some time. Finger says the spring weather may have been a bit tougher on woodcock than ruffs, but he’s still optimistic. Michigan offers similar encouraging news, as Bump explained that, as with grouse, periods of cold and wet conditions at the time of chick hatching can sometimes impact brood success, although those conditions can be localized. Sullivan reports that surveys in Maine showed woodcock numbers to be up from last year. In New York, Stiller reports that woodcock flush rates have been stable from 2011-2021, so hunters will have a good chance of encountering woodcock in suitable habitat, particularly during the peak of migration in late October.
Bobwhites
The regional bobwhite quail picture has flipped. The southwestern reaches of the bobwhite range have for many years offered the best hunting, a function of good habitat and decent rainfall. This isn’t going to be one of those years. Drought ravaged Texas, Oklahoma, and eastern Colorado, firmly planting a stake in the heart of some of the best bobwhite country. However, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri look promising; and conditions were favorable for quail across much of the South, which is welcome news for hunters in the once-famous bobwhite region.
In Texas, the multi-year drought paints a bleak picture of hunting prospects for most of the state. John McLaughlin, Texas Parks & Wildlife Department explained that following two rough years for quail, the state experienced the driest winter (September-March) on record for Texas since 1967. April and May brought decent moisture, but excessive heat quickly settled in, suppressing nesting activity with 100-plus degree temperatures for weeks at a time this summer. The quail forecast is dismal for the Rolling Plains, High Plains, and Edwards Plateau, and not much better in the Gulf Coast region.
The only real bright side is South Texas, which has provided the bulk of the state’s quail harvest in recent years, but it probably won’t be as good as last year, according to McLaughlin. “Carryover from last year’s excellent production was still decent, but conditions in South Texas are much different this year. Record drought and high temperatures currently plague northern and western South Texas. Bright spots, with reports of good bird numbers and range conditions, include Duval, McMullen, and Live Oak counties. In western South Texas, some positive news is coming out of northwest Webb, southwest Dimmit, and south Maverick counties, with reports of a good hatch so far this year. We expect fair to good hunting, varying by county. As always, there will be pockets of counties that are the exceptions.” Keep in context that South Texas offered excellent hunting last year with reports of hunters moving upwards of 30 coveys a day in McMullen, Duval, and Jim Hogg counties late in the season, according to McLaughlin. Mediocre in South Texas terms can be very good by other standards!
Kansas is a leading bobwhite state and might be the destination for western bobwhite hunters this season. Spring whistle surveys revealed a stable statewide population with significant increases in the Smoky Hills (+20 percent) and South-Central Prairies (+21 percent), says Prendergast. However, Prendergast points out that nest success and brood survival is typically far more important than population size coming into the spring, the variable measured by spring whistle surveys. Kansas received good spring moisture, but the hot and dry summer likely impacted brood survival.
Nebraska had good winter carryover of quail and decent spring rains in the southeastern and south-central regions, says Laux, which could lead to good hunting in these regions; but the western portion of the state was very dry by mid-summer. In Oklahoma, spring surveys revealed a slight decline statewide but increases in the Northwest and Southwest regions, says Judkins. However, with spring populations well below the 10-year averages, this summer’s drought will likely prevent any real recovery. Quail hunting will be poor in Colorado due to drought, says Gorman.
In Missouri, quail made it through the winter in good shape and experienced normal rainfall in most places during the nesting season, so it’s looking like a good production year, says Beth Emmerich, Missouri Department of Conservation. Likewise, Bogenschutz expects quail numbers to be significantly higher than last year due to the mild winter across southern Iowa. In Illinois, winter weather was generally mild, but early spring rains may have been problematic locally for birds that nested in low areas and along watercourses, says Wade Louis, Illinois DNR.
Georgia looks particularly promising according to Dallas Ingram, Georgia DNR. “Summer started off very dry with many areas experiencing drought conditions. Rains began to return in July and with it came good brood cover. We have had numerous reports of large broods from around the state, and if decent rains continue through the summer, we should be in line for another good production year.” The eastern portion of North Carolina also looks good due to favorable weather conditions and decent quail numbers, says Hannah Plumpton, North Carolina Wildlife Resource Commission.
In Arkansas, Clint Johnson, Arkansas Game & Fish Commission, reports that Izard County is a hot spot for quail sightings on private land, and that good numbers of birds are also being seen in White, Conway, Van Buren, Faulkner, and Hempstead counties that have a good mixture of pasture, hardwood forest, and industrial timber production (clearcuts), which combine to make usable space for quail. Greg Hagen, Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission was very upbeat about bobwhite prospects. “We experienced favorable weather conditions throughout the winter, resulting in above average over-winter survival, then spring and early summer weather conditions have been good. Barring any untimely or unforeseen weather events, we are anticipating above average nesting and brood rearing success.” In Mississippi, Rick Hamrick, Mississippi Department of Wildlife & Fisheries, reports that spring call counts were up 18 percent on state wildlife management areas and that the generally dry conditions with well-spaced rains this summer should result in good production.
Prairie Grouse and Huns
These truly are the good old days of prairie grouse hunting in South Dakota. In 2021, hunters harvested 53,219 grouse, the second highest total in a decade, despite drought conditions that resulted in poor rangeland conditions and limited grouse production last summer. Better yet, Runia says that conditions are much better than last year across western and central South Dakota. He expects better production and more huntable cover in 2021 versus 2022.
In North Dakota, the rains returned this spring and summer, and it could be an outstanding year for sharptails if habitat conditions hold up this summer, according to Jesse Kolar, North Dakota Game & Fish. “The landscape is verdant and shows a 180-degree shift from 2021.We had abundant nesting cover by late May, just in time for the peak of the nesting season. However, we had some severe thunderstorms and 24-hour rainfalls exceeding two inches, both of which can threaten nests and young chicks. Also, with early grass comes the threat of early haying, and we did see a lot of fields hayed starting in early June. The landscape looks very productive, but we’re not sure whether the impacts of the storms, early haying, and late start to the nesting season will be overcome by the shelter provided by tall mid-nesting season vegetation.”
In Montana, sharp-tailed grouse lek counts dropped slightly this spring as a result of the drought but are still above the 10-year average in the eastern survey block of the region, according to Plourde. May and June rainfall was slightly below average but far better than last year and enough to support good nest success and brood survival. Plourde expects similar numbers to last year. As with pheasants, numbers should be better to the east along the Hi-Line of northern Montana.
For Huns, North Dakota will likely again be the go-to state based on large populations two years ago and good conditions this spring and summer. Likewise, Plourde and his counterpart, Ryan Williamson, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks, both noted that Huns have taken advantage of these last few warm springs and should be relatively abundant this fall in good habitat. The only catch is the massive loss of CRP in North Dakota and Montana (see sidebar) has reduced the overall habitat for Huns. Finally, Jeff Knetter, Idaho Department of Fish and Game, says Huns should do well in Idaho this year thanks to the good cover on the landscape and excellent June rains.
Desert Quail and Chukars
The upland gamebirds that inhabit the deserts and intermountain landscapes of the West are inherently conditioned to a boom-and-bust pattern of rapid population growth and contraction, driven by rainfall in these arid regions. Populations crashed last year in response to the wretched drought that gripped the region and still has a hold on several states. However, there are some bright spots in the West.
Arizona’s desert quail populations plummeted last year to the lowest level since 1976, says Larisa Harding, Arizona Game & Fish Department. However, calling surveys this spring showed increases along most routes, up to five-fold, and some large broods have been observed. However, given the sustained drought, Harding anticipates only modest increases from last year’s record-low populations. Mearns’ quail have suffered in recent years from the lack of monsoon summer rains, and will also likely be at relatively low levels this year. In New Mexico, the statewide quail harvest crashed from 21,961 quail in 2020 to 7,173 quail last season, reported Casey Cardinal, New Mexico Game & Fish Department, but good June rains offer hope for better production this year.
It’s a similar drought story in California and Nevada, according to Katherine Miller, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, and Shaun Espinosa, Nevada Department of Wildlife. However, Miller reported that quail populations may hold steady around the Central Valley, especially in areas that burned two to three years ago. Similarly, Espinosa says the best numbers of California quail in Nevada will be near flood-irrigated agricultural lands that are resilient to drought. Heather Tally, Utah Division of Wildlife Resources, offered a similar projection regarding quail around irrigated agricultural lands in Utah. Chukar populations will likely be very low in California, Nevada, and possibly Utah due to the drought.
The bright light this year looks to be Oregon, according to Mikal Moore, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, due to a mild winter and a major pulse of precipitation in April and May. The cold and wet weather could have impacted some nests, but habitat conditions are great for the brood-rearing season. Likewise, quail and chukar populations should respond positively to similar conditions in Washington and Idaho, said Sarah Garrison, Washington Department of Wildlife, and Knetter, respectively.
CRP Acres and Pheasant Habitat: The Rest of the Story
The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has long been documented as a primary driver of pheasant population trends across the nation. According to reports by the USDA Farm Services Agency, CRP enrollment currently stands at 22.1 million acres, a far cry from the total of 37.7 million acres back in the program’s heyday of 2007. The hit of this decline in pheasant country falls squarely on Montana, North Dakota, Kansas, and Minnesota, which represent 91 percent of the loss across the Top 10 pheasant states.
Here’s where it gets interesting: CRP enrollment spiked by 1.37 million acres since 2021. CRP in South Dakota increased by 378,345 acres and now stands at 1.76 million acres, substantially more than the 1.56 million acres enrolled in 2007. Likewise, Nebraska gained 253,800 acres, and the state’s CRP footprint is nearly three-quarters of a million acres larger than it was in 2016.
The upward trend of CRP sounds great for pheasants, but the fine print tells a different story. Big chunks of these new acres are existing grasslands that were enrolled through the CRP Grasslands provision of the 2018 Farm Bill. These enrollments can help keep “grass right side up” in prairie landscapes in ways beneficial to grassland birds, breeding waterfowl, and prairie grouse. However, upland game experts explain that these native prairies are different than traditional CRP acres.
“These enrollments are typically existing pasture and rangeland that were already providing habitat, so enrolling them isn’t going to mean an increase in upland game populations,” said Eric Zach, Nebraska GPC Agriculture Program Manager. “Anytime grass stays green side up, that is a good thing. The real story is that we are losing General and Continuous Signup CRP acres. In 2007, Nebraska had 1.34 million acres of Continuous and General CRP, and now we have 644,539 acres, down roughly 52 percent. These lands are important because they provide new habitat – as cropland acres converted to grasslands – in cropland-dominated areas of Nebraska. This decline is a huge blow to upland gamebirds, other grassland species, and upland hunters.”
