2023 Upland Gamebird Hunting Forecast
by Dave Smith
The upward trajectory of upland gamebird populations in many states may make this a magical season for bird hunters.
It was on a splendid autumn day more than 20 years ago, following my two Labs across a gorgeous mosaic of cattail-lined oxbow sloughs and brushy field edges, that my friend, a novice upland gamebird hunter at the time, muttered one of those unexpectedly eloquent statements that sticks for years: The thing I really like about hunting pheasants is that you are always making decisions.
Making decisions.
It struck me as very insightful in terms of the choices we make behind a bird dog on any given day. Over the years, the statement has taken on more life in what it means to plan and execute a season of bird-hunting ventures. As upland gamebird hunters, we are dealing with an r-selected species in which populations can boom and bust in short timespans due to weather patterns in three seasons: winter survival, spring nesting, and summer brood-rearing. Heavy or light winter snowfall, winter green-up or not, wet and cold or warm and dry springs, and summer drought or well-spaced summer rains can all have monumental consequences. The one-year impact of these patterns can yield hunting in the category of the best year in memory or a year to forget. And, of course, these weather patterns vary by state, region of the state, and right down to the county level.
Habitat matters, too, as it sets the sideboards of how high or low populations will fluctuate. However, habitat trends are more noticeable and easier to track than weather impacts on gamebird populations. So, as we make decisions, particularly involving long road trips to hunt birds, it’s important to have the best possible insight into the population levels coming into the spring and, importantly, spring and summer weather patterns that drive upland gamebird recruitment.
So, what it’s looking like for 2023?
The consistent theme across the country is that weather conditions were generally favorable for upland gamebird recruitment in many states. Some common refrains: Uptick, recovery underway, solid numbers, better than last year, starting relatively low but it looks great this spring and summer. Specifically, expect a bumper crop of pheasants in the Dakotas and Iowa and increasing populations in most other states, bobwhites on a major rebound in Texas and Oklahoma, and it’s looking like a grand year to chase chukars in Nevada and Gambel’s quail in Arizona. It’s still too early to know for certain, but this looks like a great season to spend lots of days afield behind the dogs!
The upland gamebird brood surveys conducted by the state fish and wildlife agencies in late July and August will refine the fall outlook. We’ll follow up in early September with an online Upland Gamebird Forecast Update e-blast and an updated set of projections. Visit www.pointingdogjournal.com to sign up for the e-newsletter.
Pheasants
South Dakota is far and away the granddaddy of the nation’s pheasant states. Hunters tallied nearly 1.16 million roosters during the 2022-2023 season, an 8.6 percent increase over the harvest during a solid campaign the previous season. Last year’s harvest was the highest since 2016. South Dakota Game, Fish, and Parks (GFP) no longer conducts pheasant surveys, so we are limited in terms of predicting this year’s hatch. However, the weather conditions since last fall appear to have been reasonably favorable for pheasants, and South Dakota GFP has been making major progress with pheasant habitat work. The agency will have over 1.5 million acres of private lands enrolled in its hunting access programs this fall, including excellent options for pheasant hunters in the Walk-In Area program, James River Watershed Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program (CREP), and the Big Sioux River CREP. The state has tremendous habitat and will, by a wide margin, lead the nation in pheasant harvest, says Kevin Robling, Secretary, South Dakota Game, Fish & Parks. “South Dakota is the greatest state in the country to pheasant hunt. The harvest numbers show exactly why: Hunters are going to find abundant birds across the state all season long. Quality habitat is key for abundant wildlife populations, which is why this is the number one priority for our department.”
It’s a similar story in North Dakota coming off a great hatch in 2022, according to R.J. Gross, North Dakota Game & Fish. Last season, hunters harvested 286,970 roosters statewide, with the top five harvest counties being Hettinger, Divide, Bowman, Williams, and Stark. In a remarkable turn of events that speaks to last year’s production, this spring’s pheasant crowing surveys revealed a 30 percent increase, despite a rugged winter with 100-plus inches of snow. Whoa! Lots of pheasants coming into the spring sets the table for what could be a phenomenal year. Gross hints that’s exactly what might happen. “The habitat is great in most areas of the state. Plenty of cover, moisture, and insects on the landscape for those newly hatched chicks. The only concern is that hens could have had poor body condition coming out of winter that could negatively impact brood size and even if they were able to initiate a nest. Overall, though, it is all set up for good production and fall.”
Iowa will also be a great destination thanks to a normal winter followed by a warm and dry spring. The Iowa Department of Natural Resources weather model typically shows pheasant population increases following mild winters (December-March) with springs (April-May) that are dryer and warmer. Last winter, statewide snowfall was 26.1 inches, one inch above normal. Northern Iowa was hit with some heavy snow, but southern Iowa experienced very light snowfall. The great news, though, was that spring temperatures were normal and nesting season rainfall was only 4.6 inches, which was 2.5 inches below the 1961-’90 average, marking the fourth straight spring with below normal nesting season precipitation. The last time Iowa saw four consecutive dry nesting seasons was 1966-’69. Todd Bogenschutz, longtime Iowa DNR pheasant expert, was upbeat. “Warm and dry conditions during nesting this spring suggest a good hatch is possible. Our weather model is predicting pheasant populations will likely be higher for the fall 2023 hunting season. I expect there to be regional differences in the population given the tougher winter in northern regions. Populations in central and southern Iowa might show larger increases than northern regions, and a decrease is not out of the question, but the best densities will likely still be in northern and western regions of the state.”
In Nebraska, the rains returned, and pheasant populations should expand after a drought year in 2022, according to Bryan O’Connor, Nebraska Game & Parks Commission. Hunters bagged an estimated 122,000 pheasants last season, a 32 percent decline from the previous year. However, the April Rural Mail Carrier Survey revealed similar pheasant numbers as last year coming into the spring, and weather conditions have been very good. O’Conner says he is hopeful for a decent nesting and brooding year, noting that they have been getting rain in most parts of the state and the cover is looking better. Reports are also coming in that there have been decent amounts of insects this spring as well. The Panhandle and Southwest regions remain the stronghold for pheasants but populations have expanded in recent years in the Central and Northeast regions.
In Colorado, pheasant populations are low due to three years of drought and a hard winter, according to Ed Gorman, Colorado Parks & Wildlife. Pheasant crow counts this spring revealed a 56 percent decline, indicative of significant winter mortality. Gorman reports that this spring was great, but it will be a long uphill climb for pheasant recovery. “Habitat-wise, things are better than the last three years but that is buffered by the fact that breeding populations were at the lowest levels in 25 years.”
Kansas, traditionally one of the top pheasant states in the Nation with a harvest that has topped 400,000 roosters twice in the last 10 years, is coming off a tough drought year that resulted in a pheasant downturn in 2022, says Jeff Prendergast, Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks, and Tourism. Hunters tallied only 258,730 pheasants last year, and this spring’s pheasant crowing survey revealed a 36 percent decline statewide. However, don’t write off the 2023 hunting season just yet. Prendergast, one of the leading pheasant authorities relative to spring-summer conditions driving pheasant recruitment, points out that crowing surveys measure the previous year’s production, but a lot can change population-wise in a given breeding season. “Fall pheasant populations are highly dependent on production and survival of young of the year. While habitat conditions were poor coming into this breeding season, recent precipitation, which was too late to have dramatic impact on the nesting cover, will improve the survival of chicks that are hatched where nesting cover did exist.” Interpretation: Keep an eye on Kansas!
Minnesota experienced a long winter with heavy snowfall that resulted in a late start to the nesting season, says Timothy Lyons, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. Further, some of the prime pheasant areas in the southwest and south-central regions received heavy rainfall at the beginning of the nesting season. Lyons was limited at press time in giving a prediction, but believes that populations will be similar to or slightly below that of 2022. However, Lyons emphasizes the variability in pheasant densities across the landscape, noting that he expects there will be some excellent hunting this season on many of the public hunting areas available in Minnesota.
In Montana, good moisture this spring bodes well for hunters along the Hi-Line of Northeastern Montana, says Ken Plourde, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks. Plourde’s only concern was that wet and cold weather during the nesting season could have a chilling effect on pheasant recruitment. Stay tuned for the September online update.
Ruffed Grouse
There are some fundamental truths in the ruffed grouse world. Big picture: The Lake States, particularly the northern regions with the most productive young forest habitats, are the primary ruffed grouse destinations of this era. New England also offers some great grouse hunting in certain years. However, forest succession and related habitat loss have taken their toll on many states that once offered excellent grouse hunting.
It is also becoming evident that drumming counts are not a good predictor of numbers of grouse in the woods come fall. Drumming surveys measure grouse abundance at the beginning of the breeding season and are useful in tracking long term population trends. However, as Charlotte Roy, one of the foremost ruffed grouse authorities, points out: “The drumming survey is not a good predictor of the fall season now. The former relationship between the drumming survey and fall numbers has been weakening over the last 20 years, likely because the number of birds that hunters see in the fall is heavily influenced by brood production over the summer, months after the spring survey is conducted. Factors influencing brood production have been changing over the last few decades.” Roy’s conclusion is based on Minnesota data, but it likely holds true throughout the region. This means that hunting can be very good when populations are relatively low coming into the spring and vice versa.
Finally, the age-old adage of cyclic ruff Lake States grouse populations with peaks in years ending with a zero, one, or two, which still holds true to some degree, is not as rock solid as the data once indicated. Populations cycle, but it’s a bit fuzzier in terms of when they hit the highs and lows.
In Minnesota, this spring’s drumming survey showed a statewide average of 2.1 ruffed grouse drums per stop, which is up from last year and nearly identical to the 2017 peak in the population cycle. Historically, peaks would have been eight to 11 years apart. Roy breaks it down: “Counts near peak values this year might indicate that the low in the population cycle occurred in 2021 [1.3 drums per stop] but that the cycle did not dip as low as it has in the past. We have also had numerous extreme weather events, including prolonged summer drought in 2021, spring flooding in 2022, and good snow roosting conditions the last two years that may have influenced production and survival. Warm temperatures and drought conditions may produce strong production of young birds and winter conditions favorable for snow roosting in much of the core of ruffed grouse range may improve overwinter survival.”
As for 2023, Roy reports that snow roosting conditions in the core of ruffed grouse range were good last winter, anecdotal brood reports in June were good, and that habitat conditions are about like last year. While the high drumming survey results should be taken with caution, there’s collectively a lot to like about the ruffed grouse picture in Minnesota headed into this hunting season!
In Wisconsin, the ruffed grouse drumming survey yielded an 11 percent decline statewide, and a nine percent decline in the premier Northern Region, according to Taylor Finger, Wisconsin DNR. Finger believes that ruffed grouse are in the “declining” phase of the 10-year cycle, but he notes that based on the feedback from staff and hunters, last year was an average to slightly above-average season and things look promising this year. “It looks like we are in the dip of the grouse population cycle, but we still have good numbers and a lot of opportunities across the state to hunt these birds. We had a relatively mild winter with some areas of the north having tougher conditions, but following a late spring, things have caught up and we have had really good nesting conditions. The next month or so will tell the tale on brood rearing but the conditions we have had this year so far all indicate good news for ruffed grouse.”
Michigan should have a decent ruffed grouse production year and hunting season, according to Adam Bump, Michigan DNR. Bump explained that his agency recently began implementing a drumming survey again after several years of hiatus but hadn’t completed the data analysis for the last two years at press time. However, Bump was optimistic that the upcoming hunting season would be at least average based on reports from the field this summer. Bump noted that ruffed grouse production and hunting seems to have been highly variable across the state the last few years with some hunters classifying the hunting as the “best year ever” while other hunters struggled to find birds. Some concern has been expressed over West Nile Virus (WNV), but Bump says the data doesn’t indicate they have seen a WNV-related decline in the population.
In New York, ruffed grouse hunting has been very stable over the last five years and should be similar this year, says Joshua Stiller, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. “We anticipate similar grouse numbers this fall compared to last year, the forecasted flush rate will likely still be below the ten-year average, at about 0.75 grouse flushed/hour. The Adirondacks and Catskills remain the strongholds for grouse in New York.”
Maine will likely be tougher this year than in the past due to a cold and wet spring, reported Kelsey Sullivan, Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife. The drumming survey revealed a decline in grouse numbers, but the biggest issue was the heavy rain during the breeding season. Sullivan thinks they reached a threshold in which the wet spring will negatively affect productivity for grouse. In Pennsylvania, ruffed grouse are increasing after the WNV-induced crash of 2018, reports Reina Tyl, Pennsylvania Game Commission. The flush rate from this past season, 0.93 flushes per hour, was the highest observed since 2016. Tyl says this spring was warm and dry which made grouse less susceptible to WNV, so she was optimistic about this fall.
In Kentucky, the spring weather was much more favorable this year and brood sightings have increased in good habitat, says Zak Danks, Kentucky Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources. Danks acknowledges that Kentucky is not a ruff destination but notes that they have been detecting substantially more drummers at sites with high-quality, thick, gnarly, young forest habitat. In Ohio, ruffed grouse populations are at an all-time low – roughly 3,500 hunters harvested only an estimated 195 grouse last year, according to Mark Wiley, Ohio DNR.
Woodcock
The 2022 American Woodcock Population Status released by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service last August, the most recent population status report, showed that woodcock populations were stable from the previous year. The 10-year trend indicates that populations have declined dramatically, by 1.07 percent and 1.85 percent annually in the Eastern and Central Management Regions, respectively. However, a closer look at the data reveals declines in the Central region of only 0.62 per year over the last five plus decades (1968-2022). The report shows that the top states for harvest in 2022 were Michigan (47,500 woodcock), Wisconsin (42,400), Minnesota (26,300), Maine (19,600), New York (13,000), North Carolina (9,900), and
Pennsylvania (6,300). State-level insight from woodcock experts indicates that there will be some good hunting this year.
Michigan will again be one of the top two woodcock harvest states in the Nation, and Bump expects average woodcock production this year. In Wisconsin, Finger was a bit worried about the cool and wet spring but said they still expect a decent hatch and brood rearing conditions have been favorable. Stiller noted that the woodcock flush rate in New York has been very stable, and he expects good hunting this year during the peak of migration in late October. In Maine, Sullivan anticipates a decline in woodcock nesting success this spring due to the heavy rains. In Pennsylvania, Tyl was optimistic about the woodcock prospects based on good weather conditions this spring. She also noted that the 10-year average from the singing-ground survey (1.34 woodcock) is nearly equal to the 1980-2022 long-term trend (1.40 woodcock), so populations have been very stable. The flush rate last season (0.98 flushes per hour) was at the five-year average.
Bobwhites
There’s a buzz in the air in bobwhite circles! The rains returned to drought-stricken Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas in a big way; and conditions this nesting season were outstanding across much of the nation’s best bobwhite country.
There’s a lot of positive chatter this summer as Texas pulls out of a multi-year drought, says John McLaughlin, Texas Parks & Wildlife Department.
He noted that they have been the beneficiary of widespread rainfall across the state and now have the habitat to match. Biologists reported that nesting and brood-rearing habitat is good to excellent across the core bobwhite regions (Rolling Plains, South Texas Plains) and extends in every direction (High Plains, Cross Timbers). Texas came into the season with the lowest breeding population since 2012 following last season’s harvest of 191,740 bobwhites, but Texas harvest data shows spikes of a half million quail from one year to the next in the recent past. With premium conditions, quail can respond quickly.
McLaughlin worried about the impact of 100-plus degree temps during summer but felt that the cover produced by all the spring rainfall would help broods survive. Overall, he was very optimistic about major bobwhite recovery. “Heading into this hunting season, we expect to see a jump in hunter effort in tandem with an increase in bird abundance. This is all provided we make it through the summer heat wave, which can turn bad for quail quickly, as we’ve seen in the past. Overall, there are a lot of optimistic adjectives being thrown around. Most folks are realistic when it comes to what and how much we stand to gain this year, but there’s an undeniable buzz in the air down south.”
It could be a similar story in Kansas with the bonus being that bobwhite numbers were higher coming into the spring, according to Prendergast. Hunters harvested an estimated 320,670 bobwhites last year. Prendergast reported that the 2022 drought didn’t negatively impact quail in Kansas as the spring whistle count survey showed stable populations, setting the table for a big increase this year if summer conditions remain favorable. “Rains this year began in May and continued into July, which is early enough to improve nesting for quail. Rain following a drought tends to produce ideal conditions for quail.”
Oklahoma received excellent rainfall this spring and summer, so it is also set up for a population spike, says Tell Judkins, Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation. Judkins says the rainfall produced outstanding cover across the state’s best quail country, but there could have been too much rain when chicks were on the ground. Judkins advises hunters to be sure to check local regulations for any changes.
In Missouri, a mild winter and dry spring led to good nesting conditions, said Beth Emmerich, Missouri Department of Conservation. The picture in Nebraska is a bit murky, according to O’Connor. The April Rural Mail Carrier Survey showed a 367 percent increase in the Northeast region and a 45 percent decline in the North Central region, the two regions with highest quail abundance. The state received lots of rain this year, and the cover is in great shape – but there were some intense storms. In Colorado, Gorman says bobwhites are doing well in Baca County in southern Colorado. Bogenschutz predicts that quail populations will expand in southern Iowa due to the mild winter. In Illinois, quail numbers should bounce back some due to a mild winter and dry spring, according to Wade Louis, Illinois DNR. Habitat improvements through the new Conservation Reserve Program Bobwhite State Acres for Wildlife Enhancement program will also yield benefits to quail.
The state managed wildlife areas in Georgia look promising due to good rains and excellent brood habitat, says Dallas Ingram, Georgia DNR. In Arkansas, quail are on a four-year upswing and this year’s rainfall has produced outstanding habitat that should generate another population uptick, says Clint Johnson, Arkansas Game & Fish Commission. Florida quail numbers will be above average due to timely rains and good habitat conditions, says Greg Hagen, Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission. Kentucky quail are about on par with last year says Cody Rhoden, Kentucky DFWR, but he notes that production was very good at the Peabody Wildlife Management Area. In Mississippi, the spring calling counts showed a 20 percent quail decline, according to Rick Hamrick, Mississippi Department of Fish and Wildlife. Hamrick expects less quail than last season.
Prairie Grouse and Huns
The drought-breaking wet spring and summer of 2022 led to a banner year for sharptails and greater prairie chicken hunting in the northern Great Plains, and it looks like a similar story again this season. Huns are flourishing in several states and are at levels that warrant specifically hunting partridge rather than taking them incidentally.
South Dakota is again the go-to state coming off a year in which hunters tallied a whopping 63,617 prairie grouse, a 19 percent increase from the previous season! Good precipitation throughout the spring and summer should produce similar results this fall.
North Dakota was a close second last year for prairie grouse harvest at 62,640 sharptails, a 37 percent spike from 2021. The leading counties for sharptail harvest were Mountrail, Burke, Bowman, Divide, and McKenzie. Hunters also bagged an impressive 54,550 Huns in North Dakota last season, a 22 percent increase from the previous season. Jesse Kolar, North Dakota Department of Game & Fish, says that last year’s production was excellent, and this year looks great, too. “Looking forward, we expect early nesting conditions in 2023 to be positively impacted by the abundance of 2022 residual cover and current wet conditions due to snowmelt and spring rains.”
In Montana, sharptail production was great last year, and lek counts this spring showed stable to increasing populations across northeastern Montana, says Plourde. He also reports that partridge harvest was high last year. Plourde’s main concern for this fall was that of spring weather. “We had some wet and cold nights into the 40s multiple times in two weeks during the critical late June early brood rearing period. While weather during nesting and brood rearing has been good otherwise, those conditions can have a big effect on survival of young chicks. Overall, my best guess is that sharptail and Hun numbers will be similar to last year across our region.”
The Intermountain West region has seen increasing numbers of Huns in recent years. This year, Utah looks like a good bet for Huns, according to Heather Talley, Utah Division of Wildlife Resources. Talley reports that brood production is estimated to be higher than last year, yielding an increase in the population. Talley says Huns are found on private land in the eastern part of Box Elder County and public ground in the western portion, as well as in the Bear River Watershed of Cache County. Be sure to get written permission to hunt on private land. In Idaho, partridge harvest was stable last season, but Jeff Knetter, Idaho DFG, is concerned about a warm and dry spring in Hun country.
Chukars and Desert Quail
It will be a great winter to head to the rimrock country of the Intermountain West or deserts of the Southwest. One snippet from longtime chukar and desert quail expert, Shawn Espinosa, Nevada Department of Wildlife, says it all: Time to get the shotgun out of the closet.
Most of northern and central Nevada received more than 200 percent of average precipitation and snowpack last winter, which resulted in excellent green-up and great habitat during the spring and early summer, says Espinosa. Chukar broods have been observed with 14-16 chicks, and early reports from northern and central Nevada indicate it could be a boom year for chukar populations! It’s a similar story in Oregon, according to Mikal Moore, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. “Chukar are having a real moment in Oregon, with numbers on the increase several years in a row. This is likely the result of large-scale fires along large drainages that removed juniper and reset the habitat to preferred tree-less chukar territory. I recommend trying the lower Deschutes and John Day rivers, as well as the Snake and Malheur drainages to get into some world class chukar opportunity.” Chukar harvest was up last year in Idaho, says Knetter, and it should be good in the southwest again this season but a hard winter in eastern Idaho havd have reduced populations. In Utah, chukar harvest doubled last year, and Talley says they have been seeing even more chukar broods this year.
Desert quail populations are also on a major upswing in several states. Arizona received great monsoon rainfall last summer and, most importantly, lots of winter moisture that led to an excellent green-up, which is closely linked to reproductive success of Gambel’s quail, says Larisa Harding, Arizona Department of Game & Fish. Harding reports that Gambel’s quail counts tripled on two of their long-standing routes and that the hunting should be very good this season. Mearns’ quail production and hunting was good last year but may suffer a bit this year due minimal monsoons in early summer. Nevertheless, a good year for Gambel’s quail in the Arizona desert warrants driving south this winter! The outlook in New Mexico is also good for Gambel’s quail, according to Casey Cardinal, New Mexico Department of Game & Fish. “Excellent winter rains in the southwest led to good habitat conditions going into 2023, and we documented significantly greater Gambel’s calling activity compared to 2022.”
In Nevada, Espinosa reports that California quail are experiencing a population boom, as sizeable broods have been noted during chukar brood surveys and during field activities. Gambel’s quail also did well in southern Nevada. Oregon is reaping the rewards of a heavy snowpack and cooler than average spring temperatures, says Cline. She says the habitat is great with lots of good cover and better than usual forb production on the rangelands, and she expects California quail to be very abundant this fall. Washington experienced a normal winter with an unusually warm and dry spring, which is good for hatching and should lead to a productive season for quail, says Sarah Garrison, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife.
In California, quail should benefit from the extensive moisture over the winter, says Katherine Miller, California DFG. Miller offers some great advice about hunting quail in forested regions following California’s major fires. “Hunters should focus on areas where fire three to five years ago opened up the canopy for early-mid succession vegetation and rains allowed for regrowth, rather than hunting in recent [2021-2022] burn scars, which may have green growth and reproduction this year but following years of stress to the population.”
