2024 Upland Gamebird Hunting Forecast
The upward trajectory of upland gamebird populations in many states may make this a magical season for bird hunters.
by Dave Smith – Check the 2024 Email Update of the Forecast!
The signs of autumn are upon us: The days are getting shorter, the strokes of summer light are softening, and, for those of us in the West, smoke is in the air. After 20 years of living in an otherwise idyllic Montana mountain town, I’ll never completely accept the wildfire smoke that blankets our late summer days.
Nevertheless, in a weak moment, the smoke spurs the senses and brings back vivid memories of spectacular days hunting sharp-tailed grouse out east with my dogs under smoky skies. With the September sun reduced to a circle of orange poking through the haze, limits of sharptails laid out on the green grass of a knoll above a prairie spring, white breasts glistening, all was right in the world. This smoke and that memory – the reminder that it’s about that magical time of year.
This is shaping up to be an upland gamebird year for the ages in many states. The winter was mild in many regions, and there was good moisture at key times this summer, likely leading to good recruitment. The main caveat is that gamebird populations were very low in some states over the last couple of years, so the full recovery may take some time. However, I’ve learned over many years that good production years generally equate to good bird hunting. The simple math of more young birds in the population matters immensely.
There’s always a degree of guesswork involved in the mid-summer predictions that make up our annual forecast. However, some of that was reduced to fact – the big upland gamebird harvest numbers from last hunting season in some states; mild winter snowfall in key regions; spring counts way above previous years indicating more birds on the landscape coming in to the nesting season; and, importantly, many areas avoiding extreme drought this summer.
So, here’s the exciting news: Pheasant hunting could be spectacular in the Dakotas coming off a big production year and a mild winter, the Lake State ruffed grouse cycle is trending upward and the hunting could be spectacular, bobwhites are on the rebound in Texas and Oklahoma, and chukars will be off the charts in Nevada.
Many of the state fish and wildlife agencies conduct brood surveys in late July and August, and the data from those surveys is analyzed and released in September, greatly refining the fall outlook. We’ll follow up with an online Upland Gamebird Forecast Update e-blast and an updated set of projections once we have the brood survey results in hand. Visit www.pointingdogjournal.com to sign up for the e-newsletter.
Pheasants
The 2024 pheasant road trip discussion must start with the Nation’s No. 1 pheasant state – South Dakota – and the reality of how good it was last season. Hunters harvested a dizzying 1.24 million pheasants in SoDak in 2023, the highest mark in eight years, and the second-highest harvest dating all the way back to 2012. Consider this: Fewer than a million roosters were taken in SoDak in three of the last 10 years, bottoming out at 829,450 in 2019, so the South Dakota increase of over 400,000 roosters harvested last year compared to 2019 is more than the total pheasant harvest in all but a couple states.
Better yet, Mother Nature dealt a favorable hand with a mild winter and good rainfall this summer. Pheasant surveys are no longer conducted by the state wildlife agency, but South Dakota Game, Fish & Parks provided us with this statement: “Last year’s mild winter experienced throughout South Dakota should have offered superb overwinter survival for pheasants, compared to the winter of ’22-’23. A relatively mild spring and adequate rainfall have set up habitat conditions well for a hopefully successful nesting season. Although recent significant rainfall and flooding occurred in portions of South Dakota, much of the primary pheasant range was spared from the damaging flood waters. Flooding and cooler temperatures can affect nest and brood survival for pheasants. However, much needed rain was experienced throughout the state bolstering habitat conditions.”
This is tremendous news for pheasant hunters! There were big numbers of birds coming into the spring, and the summer moisture will boost recruitment in all but the lowest-lying, flood-impacted areas. Here’s the kicker: The pheasant harvest increased by seven percent from 2022 to 2023, despite a hard winter that impacted overwinter survival. Now, coming off a mild winter, this year’s population increase could be off the charts.
Pheasant populations are also on a marked upswing in North Dakota. Hunters sacked up more than 286,000 pheasants in 2022, the 2023 brood surveys showed a 61 percent increase from the previous year, and 319,285 roosters were harvested last fall. This spring the pheasant crowing counts were up by 37 percent statewide and, notably, were the best in about a decade in the Southwest and Northwest regions at 28.8 and 21.5 crows per stop, respectively. The mild winter and good moisture in late spring and early summer looks like it will yield a similar population trend as last year. R.J. Gross, North Dakota Game and Fish Department, was optimistic. “The habitat looks good out there, and the birds should be in good condition from the easy winter. Our June was a bit colder and fairly wet, but I am hopeful we will have a good hatch. The Southwest and Northwest regions will have the best hunting once again.”
In Iowa, pheasant populations have expanded dramatically in recent years, and hunters harvested more than 500,000 roosters last season, according to Todd Bogenschutz, Iowa Department of Natural Resources. The phenomenal hunting exceeded even the lofty pre-season expectations, with the brood surveys revealing a 15 percent population increase in 2023. Unfortunately, the five-year run of favorable weather took a turn for the worse this spring. The Iowa DNR model predicts that the pheasant population typically increases following mild winters with springs that are drier and warmer than normal.
Things started out fine with a winter that had snowfall below the statewide average, and well below average in northern Iowa. However, spring was exceedingly wet in Iowa: May rainfall ranked as the eight wettest in 152 years of record. The silver lining was that April and May temperatures were warmer than normal. Nevertheless, the wet spring will likely result in a pheasant population decline, according to Bogenschutz. “We had a decent winter, but spring was really wet. Our model predicts that the counts will be lower this year. It’s a bummer because last year was our best pheasant harvest in more than a decade.”
The pheasant picture in Kansas looks very similar to last year and that’s reasonably good news. Jeff Prendergast, Kansas Department of Wildlife and Parks, says that good summer rains in the western third of the state have resulted in excellent brood habitat. Like last year, the rains came too late to improve nesting cover but resulted in lots of damp areas and insects during the summer brood-rearing period. The results of the 2024 spring crowing count data, which largely measures last year’s production, and the similarity between 2023 and 2024 in terms of spring and summer rainfall patterns, offers a subtle clue as to what to expect this year. The 2024 crowing counts showed a 25 percent increase in pheasant populations. So, if that pattern holds, with the similar rainfall patterns, hunters can expect good numbers of young birds and a larger population this fall, at least in western Kansas. Prendergast noted that the regions with the most significant increases from last year, the Northern High Plains and Southern High Plains, were the regions with good summer rains both years. My take: Pay attention to western Kansas this fall. It could be very good.
In Montana, pheasant numbers are above the long-term average in both the Northeast and North-Central regions, according to Ken Plourde and Matt Strauch, respectively, but both regions slipped into drought conditions this summer, which could hinder productivity. Plourde reports that the central and western portions of the Northeast Region between Malta and Havre received the best spring and summer moisture this year so will likely have better recruitment than the northeast corner of the state that was good the last couple years. “Spring conditions were reasonably good, with late spring conditions staying better much longer in the western half of the region, while the eastern half of the region began to dry out the second half of June.”
Nebraska caught a break this year from multiple years of drought. Pheasant populations had plummeted in recent years to a harvest of only 54,800 roosters last season, but things are looking up this year, says Bryan O’Connor, Nebraska Game & Parks Commission. “We received a surplus of rain and have great looking habitat and lots of insects. Conditions seem very favorable for nesting and brooding this year.” The total numbers of birds may not be like the good old days, but there will likely be lots of young birds in the population.
The sleeper for pheasants this year may be Oklahoma. The El Niño weather pattern settled in and has produced excellent moisture, according to Tell Judkins, Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation. Judkins noted that spring crowing surveys showed an increase for pheasants, nesting cover was good, and the habitat is lush with lots of insects for brood-rearing this summer. Judkins is expecting good late summer survey numbers at least in portions of the state.
In Colorado, Ed Gorman, Colorado Parks & Wildlife reported that the crowing counts were up 65 percent this spring but that populations were at near record low levels, so that increase should be taken in context. The harvest was only 16,000 roosters last year due to the previous hard winter and drought of 2023. In Ohio, Mark Wiley, Ohio DNR, reports that the winter was mild and most of the pheasant range experienced a dry spring, which should lead to good recruitment this spring and summer. It’s a similar picture in Illinois, according to Don Kahl, Illinois DNR, with favorable weather likely boosting low but stable pheasant populations. I had trouble connecting with officials in Minnesota for their data, so please check out the Western Wings column elsewhere in this issue.
Ruffed Grouse
This looks like a grand year to chase ruffed grouse in the Lake States! The drumming counts in Wisconsin and Minnesota were sky-high this spring, and the region experienced a warm albeit wet spring. The drumming counts are a measure of the previous year’s recruitment and not a good predictor of expected fall populations. However, the spring started off with lots more ruffs in the northern woods, and if the breeding season weather was reasonably conducive to nest success and brood survival, hunters may experience even higher populations this fall. The ruffed grouse picture is always complicated by the fact that surveys are not in place to measure this year’s recruitment, but the mid-summer outlook is about as rosy as it can get. It could be a very memorable autumn in the Lake States.
Wisconsin has become the long-run destination for ruffed grouse hunters due to a strong wood products industry, active forest management by natural resource agencies, and an abundance of hunting opportunities. The demise of the ruffed grouse in the fringe of its range is countered by very stable populations in Wisconsin over many decades, a result of high-quality habitat at the landscape scale. And this year it looks very good, according to Taylor Finger, Wisconsin DNR. “Our 2024 Grouse Drumming Survey indicated a 57 percent increase statewide over last year’s numbers. We have had three excellent brood-rearing seasons in the last several years, and despite all the rain we have gotten this spring, we have been warm, which should equate to another decent brood year. I have reports from staff indicating plenty of grouse broods.”
Breaking the data down: The drumming survey revealed 2.32 drums per stop in the Northern priority area, a 60 percent increase over 2023, with increasing numbers on 34 of the 52 routes. This region has some of the best habitat in the state, and this year’s drum survey counts were the highest on record since the current survey began in 1993! Granted, the wet spring could have impacted nest success, but there’s a lot to like about the ruffed grouse story in northern Wisconsin.
In Minnesota, the surveys revealed 2.3 ruffed grouse drums per stop statewide, which is slightly higher than last year, and the highest estimate reported in over 50 years, said Charlotte Roy, Minnesota DNR. This is the third consecutive year of statewide counts cycling upward, indicating the low in the cycle occurred in 2021. Roy attributes the steep population increase to favorable weather events that may have increased production and overwinter survival of ruffed grouse the last few years, including an extreme summer drought in 2021, good snow roosting conditions in winters ’21-’22 and ’22-’23, and a very mild winter with warmer than average temperatures in ’23-’24. The counts were particularly high this spring in the Northeast region, the core of the state’s ruffed grouse habitat, with 2.7 drums per stop, the single highest mark over the last 50 years.
The drumming survey results from Michigan, which were still being analyzed at press time, also showed an increase from 2023, according to Adam Bump, Michigan DNR. “Preliminary results from the 2024 drumming survey suggest that Michigan’s grouse population is likely on the upswing in the cycle. That means grouse hunters can anticipate, on average, seeing a few more birds this fall. I haven’t seen or heard anything suggesting a significant negative impact on broods this spring, so I don’t think we’ll see widespread areas with low production. Spring weather impacts can have localized impacts but generally require prolonged cold and wet conditions around the time of eggs hatching.”
In New England, ruffs should also be on the upswing. Maine had a poor reproduction year, and harvest was down in 2023 due to persistent rain and wet conditions during nesting and brood rearing; but it looks much better this year, said Kelsey Sullivan, Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife. While this spring’s drum counts were down, reflective of last year, Sullivan reports that nesting conditions were favorable this summer without extended periods of rain, and they are getting good reports of brood sizes and numbers.
In New York, Mike Muthersbaugh, New York Department of Environmental Conservation, was optimistic. “Ruffed grouse hunting continues to be stable. We expect similar to possibly greater grouse numbers this fall compared to last year. A mild winter followed by a warm and relatively dry spring likely led to favorable nesting and brood-rearing conditions. The Catskills and Adirondacks remain the best bet for highest flush rates in New York.”
In Pennsylvania, the ruffed grouse trend has been very good in recent years, says Reina Tyl, Pennsylvania Game Commission. She reports that the statewide flush rate during the ’23-’24 hunting season was 1.07 grouse flushed per hour hunted, which was 15 percent greater than the 2022 flush rate and 29 percent greater than the previous five-year average. This was the greatest statewide flush rate since the 2013 season (1.21 grouse per hour hunted). Tyl’s chief concern is that it has been a hot and dry summer, which is conducive to West Nile Virus, which can impact ruffed grouse. Tyl reports that they are conducting more wildlife-habitat focused timber harvests and treatments on State Game Lands to benefit grouse and that they have seen a positive response in local grouse populations where some of these harvests are reaching their prime grouse cover years.
Ruffed grouse numbers remain low in Kentucky due to habitat loss, and populations may have also been impacted by West Nile Virus in recent years, says Zak Danks, Kentucky Department of Wildlife Resources. Wiley reports that ruffed grouse populations are extremely low in Ohio, with an average harvest of 0.10 grouse per hunter. Hannah Plumpton, North Carolina Wildlife Resource Commission, had some good news from her state. “We had a mild winter and relatively dry spring and early summer, which should benefit grouse survival. Ruffed grouse are found in the western portion of the state in the mountains typically in elevations above 2,000 feet. Hunters should focus in areas where active forest management has taken place in recent years.”
Woodcock
The 2023 American Woodcock Population Status released by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service last August, the most recent population status report, showed that the woodcock singing ground survey index has declined by 1.18 percent per year in the Eastern Region, and by 1.22 percent in the Central Region over the last 10 years. However, the decline in the Central Region is only 0.53 percent per year over the last 55 years. Noteworthy in the data is that the 10-year trend in Pennsylvania and Minnesota is positive with a 2.94 percent and 0.71 percent increase per year, respectively. The report shows that hunters harvested 65,400 woodcock in the Eastern Region and 112,500 woodcock in the Central Region during the ’22-’23 season. The report shows that the top states for harvest were Wisconsin (32,600 woodcock), Michigan (32,100), Minnesota (23,300), Maine (20,400), North Carolina (9,900), and Louisiana (9,100).
Wisconsin will certainly be one of the top woodcock harvest states in the nation. Finger reports that the breeding season conditions were favorable and that woodcock numbers appear to be average to above average. In Pennsylvania, Tyl shared some encouraging news on woodcock flush rates from last season: “The statewide flush rate during the 2023 season (1.27) increased 30 percent from 2022 (0.98), was 24 percent greater than the previous five-year average (1.03), and was 22 percent greater than the previous 10-year average (1.04).”
Bobwhites
Texas has the habitat base to produce incredible numbers of bobwhite quail in good years, so the epic drought the last few years has left many quail hunters with an uneasy emptiness. When will the rains return and quail populations again boom? Was it a hazy illusion, or did hunters really harvest 1.9 million quail during the 2016-’17 season? John McLaughlin, Texas Parks & Wildlife Department, confirms that it was real, it’s only a good rainfall pattern away from happening again, and there’s good news from the two key regions of Texas for bobwhites – South Texas and the Rolling Plains.
McLaughlin reported that the harvest in South Texas doubled from 144,000 in ’22-’23 to 277,000 bobwhites last hunting season. The eastern half of South Texas has been getting steady doses of moisture all summer that, if sustained, can produce quail at dizzying levels. They had the same hopes last year, but late summer turned hot and dry, and the huge increase didn’t materialize. However, McLaughlin’s current insights are intriguing. “Tropical storms have provided good to excellent rainfall in the eastern half, and brood sightings have been steady this year. Storm fronts have continued to bring rainfall into July, which should bode well for chick survival. Estimates of fair to good carryover from last year have set us out on the right foot. Our biologists in the eastern half to the coast are optimistic for a good season.”
The Rolling Plains region received good rainfall this year after six years of drought, and quail numbers could shoot up dramatically if the summer rains continue. Hunters tallied 50,000 bobwhites in the Rolling Plains last season, but the region has the capacity to produce staggering numbers with good rainfall. McLaughlin also expects some good hunting in the High Plains and Panhandle regions, which exceeded expectations last year and look promising this year.
In Oklahoma, Judkins reports that since quail numbers are well below the long-term average in most regions, most folks want to jump to cautious optimism. However, Judkins sees a clear-cut and very bright quail picture this year. “It has been a favorable year for quail here in Oklahoma! El Niño generally leads to great upland conditions. The increased rainfall and more reasonable summer temperatures allow native grasses and forbs to flourish, insects to thrive, and bird numbers to go up. The Northwest region should have the best populations. It is looking like a great year to get out there and work some ground, trust your dog, and make some memories.”
The spring whistle counts in Kansas revealed a nine percent statewide increase for bobwhites, according to Prendergast. Very high counts were recorded in the Southern High Plains and certain pockets of the Flint Hills and South-Central Prairies. The big news was the early summer rains following two years of drought, creating excellent brood habitat for quail. Prendergast was cautious but noted that quail respond much quicker to improved habitat conditions than other gamebirds, so good moisture in late summer could result in a bobwhite explosion in the Southern High Plains and parts of other regions.
The summer brood surveys will tell the story. Stay nimble because Kansas could be a bobwhite destination state this year.
Nebraska should offer some great quail hunting this year. Summer rains were great in 2023, but the post-drought nesting cover was poor, so increases were modest, said O’Connor. This spring the nesting cover was excellent from the start, and the brood habitat was superb with lots of insects; it could be a boom year for bobs. O’Connor says the counts are showing good numbers in the southeast and south-central part of the state.
The wet spring in Iowa has dampened hopes after several good quail years, but Bogenschutz says that quail numbers may still be decent due to the mild winter. In Illinois, a mild winter and warm spring spurred an uptick in quail numbers, says Kahl. He says nesting and brood-rearing cover are in great shape, and they have seen below-average temperatures in July, which bodes well for late hatches of bobwhites. Missouri is looking good, according to Beth Emmerich, Missouri Department of Conservation. “The winter of 2023 was mild, and the spring and summer have been wetter than last year, but not too wet to hammer nesting. I’ve heard good reports on broods this summer, and folks seem to be seeing more quail.”
Arkansas experienced favorable weather conditions during nesting season, and preliminary reports suggest another high reproductive year for ground-nesting birds, reported Clint Johnson, Arkansas Game and Fish Commission, noting that the last five years have been the highest reproductive output they have seen in the last 20 years. Same story in Mississippi, where conditions have been good this spring and summer, said Rick Hamrick, Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Parks. Florida also looks promising, says Greg Hagan, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. “Central and south Florida had strong overwinter survival, and weather conditions have been good since mid-June, positively impacting nesting and brood rearing success. If conditions hold, populations should be well positioned heading into the fall.”
In Georgia, it was a tough breeding season for quail due to adverse weather, reported Dallas Ingram, Georgia Wildlife Resources Division, but she thinks private lands in southwest Georgia could be pretty good. In Kentucky, Cody Rhoden, Kentucky Department of Wildlife Resources, expects declining flush rates this season. Conditions were good this spring in North Carolina, but populations are low, said Plumpton. Good summer rainfall has produced excellent brood habitat in South Carolina, reported Michael Hook, South Carolina DNR.
Prairie Grouse and Huns
The Dakotas will be the destination for sharp-tailed grouse, prairie chickens, and Huns this year! Coming off excellent seasons in 2023, both states benefitted from a mild winter and great moisture at key times this spring and summer.
In South Dakota, hunters harvested 69,442 prairie grouse last season, the highest tally in over 20 years! Last year’s bumper hatch and the superb spring-summer conditions this year sets the table for extraordinary production this year. South Dakota Game, Fish & Parks shared some great news about the Fort Pierre National Grasslands, an iconic public hunting area: “The USDA Forest Service staff on the Fort Pierre National Grasslands witnessed record highs for their greater prairie chicken and sharp-tailed grouse spring lek surveys because of great nesting success in 2023 and mild winter conditions.”
Here’s my bold prediction: If conditions hold in the South Dakota grouse range with good moisture this summer, it will be an epic autumn and maybe the best prairie grouse hunting in the Nation in a quarter century. Time to load up the bird dogs!
North Dakota will offer much of the same, contingent on the same late summer moisture outcome. The sharp-tailed grouse census this spring showed a 51 percent increase in sharptails statewide, according to Jesse Kolar, North Dakota Game and Fish Department. These results correspond with outstanding production last summer. The population spike was highest in the Southwest region (up 74 percent), Grand Forks region of eastern North Dakota (up 67 percent), and Prairie Potholes region (up 58 percent). Kolar explains that big numbers of sharptails in the Southwest this year is a result of successive wet springs with good residual grass cover on rangelands, and healthy insect abundances during the brood-rearing season. Further, North Dakota has in recent years become a go-to destination for Hungarian partridge. The great conditions through June will almost certainly equate to some outstanding hunting this fall.
Montana will offer some good hunting for sharptails and Huns again this year. Plourde reports that sharptail populations were above the long-term average this spring in the Northeast Region, but summer drought conditions will likely reduce recruitment in the eastern third of the region. Conditions were favorable farther west due to better moisture, so Plourde encourages hunters to spread out and take advantage of what will likely be excellent recruitment of sharptails and Huns in the central and western portions of the region. Idaho has been very good for Huns in recent years but was hit hard by drought this summer, and populations will likely decline, said Jeff Knetter, Idaho Department of Fish and Game. The sleeper for Huns this year will be Nevada due to excellent production last year and ideal conditions this spring and summer, leading to large brood sizes, said Shawn Espinosa, Nevada Department of Wildlife. Nevada is rapidly becoming a destination state for partridge hunters.
Chukars and Desert Quail
This is the year to go to Nevada! Chukar populations increased dramatically last year in many mountain ranges thanks to good winter conditions and a steady stream of summer rains. In 2023, the Nevada Department of Wildlife’s summer surveys revealed a 6.0 young-to-adult ratio statewide, well above the 4.5 ratio needed to maintain a stable population. The ratios in Elko, Humboldt, Eureka, Mineral, and Churchill ranged from 7.1 to a staggering 10.5 young per adult. In the boom-and-bust Intermountain West, devout chukar hunters intuitively knew that last year was nice but that the promise of a big year can evaporate quickly with a return to drought. So, what happened this year is the stuff of chukar dreams!
The good moisture continued this spring and summer, layering another year of superb chukar habitat on the landscape. Starting with excellent breeding stock, recruitment looks to have been excellent this year. It is the recipe for a chukar explosion, said Espinosa, the nation’s leading chukar authority. “All indications are that this will likely be one of the best chukar seasons that Nevada has seen since the early 2000s. Insect and forb availability was excellent throughout much of Nevada during the spring and summer months. It was a very hot and dry June and July, but recent rainfall has provided relief, replenished water developments, and helped vegetation. Anecdotal observations by biologists indicate large brood sizes for chukars that are well distributed across the landscape, from low elevation toe slopes to high elevation canyons.”
Washington also looks promising for chukars and California quail following a good harvest last season, says Sarah Garrison, Washington Department of Wildlife. “With strong populations coming out of last year, a mild winter, and pretty good spring conditions, populations should be good this fall.”
In California, winter rains produced ideal conditions for California quail, but the problem now is the extreme summer heat and massive wildfires, said Katherine Miller, California Department of Fish and Wildlife. Chukar populations seem to be expanding on the Great Basin-Mojave Desert edge.
In Arizona, the desert quail outlook is murky with good news and bad news, says Larissa Harding, Arizona Game and Fish Department. The good news is that Gambel’s quail population exploded in some areas last year and that winter rains had the table set for a quail boom this year. “We had higher calling rates in desert areas during March-May for Gambel’s quail than previous years, and in some of our best hunting areas in southern Arizona call rates were nearly double what we recorded in spring 2023. However, we had incredible heat this summer and brood sizes declined.” Harding expects some good hunting for Gambel’s quail this fall but noted that the monsoon patterns that drive Mearns’ quail recruitment largely did not materialize.
New Mexico was mostly dry during the winter and suffered drought conditions this spring and summer, reported Casey Cardinal, New Mexico Game and Fish Department. She noted that monsoons in the mountains of the Southwest region may result in pretty good hunting for Mearns’ quail, but overall, it looks like a tough year due to drought.
This article was originally published in the September/October 2024 issue of The Pointing Dog Journal.
