2025 Upland Gamebird Hunting Forecast

Upland gamebird populations were sky-high in some regions last year, and this could be another remarkable season!

by Dave Smith

The first taste of fall stirs the soul of an upland bird hunter in a familiar way each year. A rich collage of memories floods the mind: beloved bird dogs, treasured times with friends and family, and those special places. The trance builds anticipation for a new chapter of fantastic fall days.

Then reality sets in. What’s going on with upland gamebird populations, habitat, and access? Where are we going, with whom, and when? The random ideas that have floated around since spring need to be corralled. Upland game populations fluctuate widely from year to year. Successful bird hunters do their homework.

Some of us will only hunt birds in one state while others will travel to a different destination each year. My routine is to operate at the micro scale, hunting about a three-county area, studying summer precipitation patterns at the township level, talking to locals, and going in different directions early in the season. Others will size up the states with high bird populations and embark upon a new adventure. Regardless of the strategy, we all want to make informed decisions.

Thankfully, many of the state fish and wildlife agencies take to heart the challenges their license-buying constituents face in their decision-making. These agencies conduct crowing, whistle, or drumming surveys in the spring; summarize the previous year’s harvest estimates; utilize sophisticated weather models to predict fall populations; and, in late summer, conduct the all-important summer roadside or brood surveys to measure the current year’s recruitment.

So, what’s the picture headed into the fall of 2025?

Here’s the exciting news: Upland gamebird populations were at 20-year highs in several states last year, and the overall theme in many regions is that winter and breeding season conditions have been very good! Quail populations in Texas will likely be the best in a decade; ruffed grouse numbers are still very high in the Lake States and parts of New England; prairie grouse and Hun numbers are strong following last year’s phenomenal production; and pheasant populations are near the highest levels in recent memory in Iowa, the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The stage is set for an incredible season in the heart of pheasant country.

The picture will get clearer as the state fish and wildlife agencies conduct summer brood surveys, and the data from those surveys is analyzed and released in September. We’ll follow up with an online Upland Gamebird Forecast Update e-blast and an updated set of projections once we have the brood survey results in hand.

Quick Links

Pheasants
Ruffed Grouse
Woodcock
Bobwhites
Prairie Grouse and Huns
Chukars and Desert Quail

 

Pheasants

The Iowa pheasant boom that produced the highest back-to-back pheasant harvests (590,000 in 2023; 463,000 in 2024) since 2007 may really explode this year thanks to excellent winter and spring weather. Last winter was the fourth least snowy in 138 years, and spring was normal for rainfall and temperature, predictors of a pheasant population increase according to Todd Bogenschutz, Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR). “Given the statewide information, we are expecting a good nesting effort. Our weather model predicts pheasant populations will likely be higher this hunting season. I expect there will be regional differences, but hopefully we will see nice increases in all survey regions.”

Bogenschutz adds that the light snowfall enabled hens to nest early and that they received reports of hens with chicks in southern Iowa in mid-May. “When we have early nesting years, we typically have the highest number of chicks, and it is looking like 2025 will be an early nesting year.” With the incredible harvest of two years ago fresh in mind and this breeding season shaping up to be spectacular, the Hawkeye State is a great pheasant destination.

North Dakota pheasant populations have been on the rise for three years, with harvest steadily increasing from 286,000 in 2022 to 357,018 in 2024. This year has the makings of being even better. Tracking with the spike in 2024 summer brood survey results and last season’s increased harvest, this spring’s crowing counts revealed a six percent increase, reported RJ Gross, North Dakota Game & Fish Department. “Our pheasants had two easy winters without much snow, and the cover was good coming into the spring. The weather has generally been favorable, especially in the southwest and central regions, but we have had some hailstorms that will create some dead zones.”

The pheasant picture in Minnesota looks promising. Last summer’s roadside transects revealed 52.1 pheasants per 100-mile route, which was 19 percent above the 10-year average, and conditions have been very favorable this spring and summer, says Nate Huck, Minnesota DNR. “We were in a moderate drought until early May but received some good moisture in late May, June, and July. Haying and roadside mowing were delayed due to moisture, which likely helped increase brood survival. We are seeing good numbers of broods, and conditions will be good due to the moisture. I predict stable numbers or possibly a little better this upcoming fall.”

The sleeper pheasant state this year may be Wisconsin, which has been off the radar a bit in our recent forecasts. Successive years of favorable weather have resulted in the doubling of the pheasant indices on the spring surveys since 2021. This spring’s surveys revealed an average of 0.81 pheasants per stop, up from 0.62 last year and the five-year average of 0.52 pheasants per stop, according to Alissa Kakatsch, Wisconsin DNR. The highest pheasant indices were recorded in the northwest region. The steady expansion of the Wisconsin pheasant population can be attributed to good brood-rearing conditions during 2023 and 2024, dry and mild winters the last two years, and habitat improvements. Landscape-scale projects such as the Western Prairie Habitat Restoration Area in northwest Wisconsin have restored a mosaic of grassland and wetland habitats within a working-farm landscape that has been conducive to pheasant production. Wisconsin DNR and its conservation partners have invested heavily in pheasant habitat improvements, and the results are showing!

Nebraska is coming off a very good production year that yielded a 189 percent spike in the harvest over the tough year of 2023. This spring’s crowing counts in the southwest region were 150 percent above last year. The April Rural Mail Carrier Survey also showed big increases in the northeast and central regions, and a 50 percent increase in the Panhandle, all indicative of the great production last year. The spring and summer conditions have been outstanding for pheasant recruitment, reported Bryan O’Connor, Nebraska Game Fish & Parks. “We started off super dry for most of the state but come late May the gates opened up and the rains came. With good carryover cover from last year, we should see good production. I’m optimistic of a good year of hunting.”

In Kansas, the spring crowing counts revealed a 49 percent pheasant increase from last year. However, the weather was all over the board coming off a wretched drought that broke last summer, says Jeff Prendergast, Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks & Tourism. “Last summer’s rainfall combined with above average winter precipitation created ample cover and soil moisture coming into this spring to prime the pump. However, we’re not sure what to expect given we received heavy rainfall across much of the state during the nesting season, which can reduce nest and brood success. Alternatively, the Northern High Plains region saw well-below average rainfall through spring and summer, which may set it back again. I am optimistic we will see improved numbers across most regions but may not realize the potential of a large increase.”

Populations are on the rise in eastern Colorado, according to Ed Gorman, Colorado Parks & Wildlife. Gorman explains that pheasant recruitment this year should be good, but the overall population is still recovering. Hunters harvested 26,000 roosters last year, an uptick from the record-low 16,000 pheasants harvested in 2023. The spring was dry this year through May, but June was wet and excellent for pheasant production. Gorman expects to see improved pheasant populations this fall.

In Montana, pheasant populations were 28 percent below the long-term average in Region 6 of northeastern Montana, according to Ryan Williamson, Montana Fish Wildlife & Parks. Williamson explained that survey conditions were very poor, so the drop may not be that precipitous. Williamson notes that he’s heard positive reports from landowners and locals regarding pheasant numbers, so he feels like it will be an average year. North-central Montana could be better, according to Matt Strauch, Montana FWP. Spring crowing counts in the eastern part of the region were up from 2024 even in areas with marginal habitat. Numbers also increased in areas of good habitat along the Rocky Mountain Front.

The crowing call surveys in Oklahoma showed an increase over last year, and good moisture this year has enabled native grasses and forbs to flourish and insects to thrive, says Tell Judkins, Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation. In areas with quality habitat in Illinois, hunting was above average last season, and conditions were good this spring except in southern Illinois, which received too much rain, says Don Kahl, Illinois DNR. The wild pheasant harvest in Indiana largely occurs on the 33 gamebird habitat management areas in the five-county region of northwest Indiana, reported Andy Byers, Indiana DNR. In 2025, Benton County showed the highest number of pheasant crowing calls per stop.

All of which brings us to the great state of South Dakota. The No. 1 pheasant state in the nation no longer conducts pheasant surveys. This high-level decision by the State prevents an informed forecast at both this juncture and with the fall online update. Nevertheless, we have provided a few fun facts that can inform the guesswork of hunters in their planning (see sidebar).

The Great 2025 Upland Gamebird Forecast Mystery: South Dakota Pheasants

Planning a South Dakota pheasant hunt and wishing for an informed forecast? Whether you like or hate South Dakota’s approach regarding pheasant surveys, this year looks interesting. Here are some facts:

• Hunters harvest more pheasants in South Dakota each year than any other state by a wide margin: double the harvest every year, and almost three times the harvest in some years.
• Pheasant harvest has increased each year for five consecutive years.
• In the 2024 season, hunters tallied an incredible 1.31 million pheasants, averaging 9.3 birds per hunter.
• The winter and summer weather appears to have been very favorable for pheasants, according to Alex Solem, South Dakota Game, Fish, and Parks. “A mild winter throughout much of South Dakota bodes well for pheasants. The lack of snowy conditions should lead to increased winter survival and more nesting hens. Timely rains have improved habitat conditions throughout much of the pheasant range, improving nesting and brood rearing conditions after a dry spring.”

 

Ruffed Grouse

It’ll be another very good year to chase ruffed grouse in the Lake States. The drumming counts were slightly lower in all three states from 2024 to 2025, but context is everything in this year’s ruffed grouse outlook: Ruffed grouse numbers were still at or near their highest levels this century coming into the spring!

In Wisconsin, the spring surveys revealed a statewide average of 1.34 drums per stop, the third highest mark in the last 25 years, according to Kakatsch. The northern region, which supports the highest grouse abundance in the state, had the highest abundance again this year with 2.13 drums per stop, the region’s third highest index since 1994. Kakatsch explained that grouse numbers were still at very high levels this spring. “We are fortunate to still have a healthy and abundant grouse population in Wisconsin, particularly in the northern third of the state. Back-to-back prime nesting and brooding conditions resulted in a 57 percent increase in statewide drumming activity in 2024. In 2025, drumming results show just a six percent decline from the previous year, indicating abundance is still above expectations for this part of the 10-year population cycle.” However, she notes that spring and summer conditions were wet, which isn’t ideal for ruffed grouse during the nesting and brood-rearing.

The grouse drumming surveys in Minnesota also revealed a strong population, according to Charlotte Roy, Minnesota DNR. The 2025 statewide tally of 1.8 drums per stop was down from the incredible 2.3 drums per stop in 2024, which was the highest statewide index since 1972. This year’s index still represents the sixth highest count in the last 50 years. Roy emphasizes that drumming surveys measure the population coming into the spring, not the recruitment during the spring and summer. “Drumming counts alone are not an accurate way to predict the birds that will be present during the fall hunting season. Nesting success and chick survival during the spring and summer influence the number of birds in the fall. Recruitment can be reduced by heavy rain during June when nests hatch and chicks are young.”

In that vein, a lot will be determined by specific weather conditions during the breeding season. Many areas of Minnesota experienced heavy rainfall events this spring and summer. The key question, according to Roy, is whether the rainfall events hit during the key nesting or early brood-rearing periods. She advises hunters to move around and try different areas that may have experienced different weather conditions to maximize the chance of getting into birds.

In Michigan, preliminary analysis of the drumming survey data shows a slight decline this year, reported Adam Bump, Michigan DNR. He doesn’t anticipate this to be overly noticeable for hunters and expects hunting experiences to be similar to last year. Bump notes that the Northern Lower Peninsula was hit by a catastrophic ice storm this year and thousands of acres of forests were damaged and many forest roads are likely to still be blocked in the fall. Hunters should expect some access issues, and there may be large numbers of downed trees, which might impact the ability to hunt certain areas.

The ruffed grouse picture in New England is a mixed bag. In Maine, the nesting season was defined by rainfall and cool temperatures that can impact grouse recruitment, according to Kelsey Sullivan, Maine Department of Inland Fisheries & Wildlife. He reported May and June had lots of days of steady rain; but the rainy days were not in a row, and they had several days in between rain events in which the conditions were dry with average temperature. Sullivan expects an average season this fall. “We had a very successful reproductive season for ruffed grouse in 2024. Based on the conditions this spring and the good numbers from last year, I expect the 2025 grouse season to be middle of the road.” It’s less rosy in New York, according to Michael Muthersbaugh, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. Ruffed grouse flush rates last season remained stable but continued to be low, averaging just under 0.5 flushes per hour statewide. This spring’s drumming surveys also indicated that drumming activity remains low yet relatively consistent.

Pennsylvania ruffed grouse numbers have been climbing for several years, and the grouse flushed per hour hunted was 1.10 statewide during the 2024 season, the highest flush index since 2013, reported Reina Tyl, Pennsylvania Game Commission. The increase in the flush rate was driven by the southern portion of the state, specifically the ridge-and-valley region of south-central Pennsylvania. It was a wet spring and summer, but Tyl says they hadn’t detected an increase in West Nile Virus.

Kentucky experienced the second wettest April on record, which was not favorable for grouse, said Zak Danks, Kentucky Division of Wildlife Resources. Danks notes that drumming surveys have shown increases in high-quality habitat, but those conditions are not widespread. Likewise, ruff populations are very low, and it was a tough winter and spring in North Carolina, according to Hannah Plumpton, North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission. Grouse population indices remain at all-time lows in Ohio, said Mark Wiley, Ohio DNR. One bit of good news from the fringe of the range: In South Carolina, Hurricane Helene and a subsequent wildfire this spring dramatically opened up the forest in the mountains, which should result in a spike in ruffed grouse populations in the future, reported Michael Hook, South Carolina DNR.

 

 

Woodcock

The 2024 American Woodcock Population Status released by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service last August, the most recent population status report, showed that the 2024 woodcock singing ground survey index exhibited a significant increase for the Eastern Region over last year and was stable in the Central Region. The report shows that hunters harvested 78,700 woodcock in the Eastern Region and 160,500 woodcock in the Central Region during the 2023-2024 season. Harvest in the Eastern Region was 6.3 percent greater than the long-term average of 74,000 birds/year and 20.3 percent greater than last year (65,400 birds). Harvest in the Central Region was 15.7 percent less than the long-term average of 190,500 birds/year but 42.7 percent greater than the previous year (112,500 birds). The report shows that the top states for harvest were Michigan (50,400 woodcock), Wisconsin (32,000), Minnesota (30,300), Maine (20,500), Arkansas (17,400), and Louisiana (13,500).

Kakatsch reports that woodcock numbers in Wisconsin have remained similar to the 10-year average and that the state will again be one of the nation’s top woodcock destinations this fall. In Michigan, hunters reported seeing less woodcock last year, but Bump expects reasonably good numbers this fall. Tyl reported the federal singing ground survey indicates breeding woodcock numbers in Pennsylvania are at record levels; the 2024 index of 1.66 singing-males per route was the greatest value observed since 1976. Sullivan and Muthersbaugh reported that the data indicates woodcock numbers to be stable in Maine and New York, respectively.

 

Bobwhites

This is shaping up to be a quail year to remember in Texas! Hunters harvested over 520,000 bobwhites last season, the best harvest since the 2017-’18 campaign, and this year looks even better, according to Patrick Schutz, Texas Parks & Wildlife Department.

The Rolling Plains region is poised for a tremendous quail season. Coming off a great year last year, the region received steady moisture through July and habitat conditions are superb. The harvest nearly tripled from 50,000 quail the previous year to over 136,000 last year, and reports of hunters flushing 12-plus coveys per day last season were common. Weather conditions have been near-perfect this spring and summer, according to Schutz. “Our biologists have reported seeing many more pairs and broods than last year. Landowners are providing the same type of reports, even outside of the quail core areas.”

South Texas has been very good in recent years, accounting for more than half of the statewide harvest, and it should again produce some excellent hunting. The northern part of the region was dry early, but timely summer rains have improved habitat conditions, and the biologists are receiving good reports of quail broods. Farther south, range conditions are better, and the biologists expect above average quail populations.

The context of a quail explosion in Texas is staggering: In 2016-’17, hunters harvested an incredible 1.48 million bobwhites. It is entirely possible that this could be one of those years in which bobwhite harvest ramps up closer to a million quail. To sum up Texas, in the legendary words of Robert Perez, the colorful former Texas PWD Upland Game Bird Project Leader: It’s time to ring the bell!

It’s a similar good news story across the western edge of the bobwhite range. Oklahoma experienced a wet and cool growing season and should offer some excellent hunting, said Judkins. Quail numbers have been increasing and were nearly at the long-term average level last year in the northwest region, according to the August and October 2024 surveys. Good production this year could make western Oklahoma an excellent bobwhite destination.

In Kansas, this spring’s statewide quail index was up nine percent, driven by large increases in the southwest and south-central regions that received early summer rains that greatly improved habitat, said Prendergast. In Nebraska, the spring whistle counts showed a 38 percent increase in bobwhite numbers statewide, with all regions over the five-year average, reported O’Connor. The bobwhite population is very high in areas of southeastern Colorado with good habitat, says Gorman, noting that locals have told him they are seeing bobwhites in places they haven’t seen quail in years.

Quail numbers increased last year in Missouri and winter carryover was good, but heavy rainfall during this year’s nesting season in the southern and central parts of the state will likely knock populations back, said Beth Emmerich, Missouri Department of Conservation. Kahl reports that a hard winter and wet spring and summer in southern Illinois negatively impacted quail, but there are scattered pockets of good quail numbers across the central and western portions of the state. In Indiana, Byers says spring whistle survey counts were highest in Pulaski, Vigo, and Daviess Counties. Quail numbers have increased in Pulaski County and the southwest portion of the state.

Arkansas should offer some of the best quail hunting in the Southeast this fall, according to Clint Johnson, Arkansas Game and Fish Commission. “Conditions were favorable during this summer and spring, and there haven’t been any notable weather events that would preclude a good hatch.” Johnson reports that the best hunting on public lands can be found on large federal ownerships like Fort Chaffee and our National Forests, where savanna restoration work has occurred, and several state-owned WMAs also have good populations. Florida looks good thanks to a moderately dry spring that was followed by consistent rains in June and July, which has positively impacted nesting and brood rearing success, reported Greg Hagen, Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission. In Mississippi, the spring surveys showed a 20 percent bobwhite decline, and the state has received excessive rainfall all spring and summer. However, late hatches will likely add lots of young birds to the fall population, said Rick Hamrick, Mississippi Department of Fish and Wildlife.

Georgia received enough rainfall this summer to produce excellent cover, and there have been reports of broods of 8-12 chicks with varied age classes in central Georgia, said Dallas Ingram, Georgia DNR. North Carolina had a cold and wet spring, which isn’t great for quail, said Plumpton. In South Carolina, the wet spring provided good brood habitat, but perhaps too much rain during nesting, said Hook.

 

 

Prairie Grouse and Huns

This is truly the golden era of prairie grouse and partridge hunting. The harvest of sharp-tailed grouse, prairie chickens, and Hungarian partridge was the highest in the last 25 years in several states last season. Think about the staggering scale of harvest from the Dakotas: Hunters tallied nearly a quarter-million prairie grouse and Huns in those two states alone last season. That is remarkable upland gamebird hunting, and it occurs in wonderful prairie landscapes. Better yet, a mild winter and good moisture this spring and summer has the table set for another spectacular fall across much of the range.

South Dakota will clearly be the go-to state for prairie grouse this year. Hunters harvested nearly 99,000 sharp-tailed grouse and prairie chickens in 2024, a 42 percent increase over the previous season, according to Solem. Hunters averaged 5.15 grouse per hunter, nearly a bird and a half more than the five-year average. Solem reports that spring was dry, but the grouse range received excellent moisture this summer. The combination of high carryover and good conditions this breeding season presents a scenario in which the prairie grouse harvest could exceed the 100,000 mark this season.

In North Dakota, the 2024 harvest of 73,010 sharp-tailed grouse represented an eight percent increase from the prior year, and the harvest of 67,465 partridge was stable, according to Jesse Kolar, North Dakota Game & Fish Department. The top counties for sharptails and Huns were Hettinger, Williams, Divide, Morton, Bowman, Stark, and McLean. Kolar reports that the winter was exceedingly mild, and while drought had been a concern, summer moisture has been good. “Things look good despite several severe storms. Hail only impacts small portions of the state, so it shouldn’t affect the broader landscape. Western North Dakota is currently as green as it gets for late July.”

In Montana, Williamson reported that sharptails in the Northeastern region are four percent below the long-term average, but he isn’t concerned about a significant decline because they saw good numbers of grouse on last winter’s deer surveys. Sharptail numbers were highest this spring between Glasgow and Havre, areas that had better moisture last summer and received less winter snow. The multi-year drought has impacted certain swaths of the region, but each summer, there have been areas that received better rainfall, resulting in good recruitment of sharptails and Huns. In Region 7 of southeastern Montana, Justin Hughes, Montana FWP, says the summer moisture has been excellent and the prognosis is good, but there have been some intense storms with sizeable hail that may have reduced populations in certain pockets. Prendergast reported that prairie chickens won’t be surveyed in Kansas until next year, but populations should expand this year in the north-central region due to good rainfall.

In Idaho, the Hun harvest in 2024 was 113 percent over the long-term average and 170 percent above from the 10-year average, marking the highest partridge harvest in 25 years, according to Jeff Knetter, Idaho DFG. However, drought has gripped the state. “Fall 2024 was an exceptional upland game bird year in Idaho. Unfortunately, it was warmer and drier this spring, and the whole state was in at least one stage of drought in late July, with most regions moderate or more severe. By comparison, last year most of the state was either abnormally dry or not in a drought classification. Drought severity is most intense in the Clearwater and Magic Valley regions, but less severe in the Southwest, Southeast and Upper Snake regions.”

In Nevada, Huns will decline from last year’s high levels but still be well distributed across their range, said Shawn Espinosa, Nevada Department of Wildlife. Huns are also expected to be less abundant in northern Utah due to dry conditions, says Heather Talley, Utah Department of Wildlife Resources.

 

Chukars and Desert Quail

There’s a simple formula for hunting desert quail and chukars: Go where it rained. Last year, that was all over the Great Basin. Hunting was phenomenal in many states, and the carryover of birds into 2025 was excellent. This year has been very dry in chukar and desert quail country. It’s a year to do your homework.

Colorado isn’t usually at the top of the list for desert quail, but this is a unique year, according to Gorman, one of the most well-respected upland gamebird experts in the country. “Scaled quail have been mostly down for 10 years but last year showed real steps towards improvement. My gut feeling, and I am rarely this positive, is that this is going to be a really good year to travel to southeast Colorado for quail, probably in the frame of 2016 and 2006. We expect it to be excellent.” When Ed Gorman is gushing about quail numbers, pay attention!

Another sleeper is Washington where hunters harvested an impressive 33,094 quail for an average of eight quail per hunter last season, according to Sarah Garrison, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. Garrison says the Columbia Basin, which has experienced normal moisture, especially in Franklin and adjacent parts of Adams, Walla Walla, and Benton counties, looks good. In Nevada, despite a drought-riddled summer, the observed production of California quail so far is very good throughout the range and should provide ample opportunity this season, says Espinosa. California has quietly offered some of the nation’s best desert quail hunting in recent years, with hunters taking up to 175,000 California quail statewide. For context, the California quail harvest in Kern County (22,000 in the last harvest estimate) is more than all quail in some states. However, this year was warmer and drier than usual, says Katherine Miller, California Department of Fish and Wildlife. Tip: Study Kern County rainfall patterns.

The Gambel’s quail picture is bleak in Arizona, reported Larisa Harding, Arizona Game & Fish Department. “We had very poor winter rains, nonexistent in much of our quail country, and little to no precipitation or green-up this spring. Coupled with extremely hot temperatures, the landscape is very dry.” New Mexico looks even tougher due to widespread drought and declining quail populations, says Casey Cardinal, New Mexico Game & Fish Department.

The 2024 chukar season was one for the ages! In Nevada, it was the best it had been in 20 years, said Espinosa. In Idaho, harvest increased 47 percent from the long-term average and 118 percent from the 10-year average, reported Knetter, noting it was the best year since the early 2000s. Both expect lots of carryover adult birds, but drought conditions will result in very low recruitment this year. The bright light for chukars could be Box Elder County of northern Utah, and the Beaver and Fillmore Units of southern Utah, according to Talley.