Fall Update: 2026 Upland Gamebird Hunting Forecast
This update to our 2026 Upland Gamebird Hunting Forecast incorporates the results of late summer upland gamebird population surveys conducted by state fish and wildlife agencies. This data measures recruitment of birds into the fall population, providing a more finely tuned forecast than was possible at press time for the print magazine in mid-July [read the original forecast].
by Dave Smith
The business of forecasting upland gamebird populations in mid-summer involves artful guesswork by state wildlife agency upland game bird coordinators. Upland gamebird populations can vary dramatically from year-to-year, drought or summer rains can heavily influence recruitment, and the current year’s production is the most important determinant of fall populations and hunting prospects. That’s why the most important gamebird surveys are those conducted in late summer.
The state fish and wildlife agencies that conduct late summer roadside or brood surveys recently released the data from those surveys, and there’s some very good news for pheasants and quail in the Heartland!
The 2026 story is that of extremes: Pheasant populations in some key states with the highest populations are at or near the highest levels 20 years! Likewise, it looks like another outstanding year for quail hunters in the western fringe of the bobwhite range. The flip side is that drought conditions gripped much of the best prairie grouse and chukar country this summer, resulting in very low recruitment of young birds into the population. More so than some years, this might be the year to load up the bird dogs and hit the road for the destinations in which the surveys revealed major population expansions!
Here’s some highlights: Pheasant numbers are off the charts in South Dakota, Minnesota, and Nebraska, and are still very good in North Dakota and Iowa; and bobwhite populations increased from already good levels in the key harvest states of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas.
The take-home is that hunters that do their homework and go where it’s good may experience some of the best upland gamebird hunting in nearly a quarter century this fall! Here’s the full breakdown from the states that conduct summer surveys and, of course, South Dakota. As is our tradition, we emphasize pheasants as the #1 species for our PDJ readership.
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Pheasants
Bobwhites
Prairie Grouse and Huns
Chukars and Desert Quail
Pheasants
This year will be another epic year to hunt pheasants in South Dakota! Hunters tallied an incredible 1.35 million wild pheasants last year and everything is lined up for a similar campaign in 2026, according to Alex Solem, South Dakota Game, Fish & Parks. Hunters averaged 9.7 birds per hunter for the season, the highest mark since 2011. Solem reports that more pheasants were harvested in two weeks of October than in any other state during their entire hunting season. Think about that amazing fact for the #1 pheasant state in the Nation; it’ll make your head spin.
The population dynamics and weather variables over the last year are the stuff of pheasant hunters’ dreams. The sky-high harvest from last season was a clear indicator of favorable spring and summer weather within the primary pheasant range in 2025 that produced a pheasant explosion. In succession, last winter was exceedingly mild, resulting in excellent carryover into this spring and an abundance of hens available for nesting. In some states and in some years, this is where the balloon pops with an untimely dose of tough weather conditions during that spring and summer, resulting in declining populations and the famous what might have been sentiments. That did not happen this summer in South Dakota; in fact, it was the opposite.
The 2026 is extremely intriguing: The spring and summer weather patterns were, according to South Dakota GFP, ideal for yet another year of excellent pheasant production: “Near normal spring precipitation and temperatures, followed by timely summer rainfall has made grassland habitat conditions favorable for production once again. Although some areas of the pheasant range are experiencing drought conditions, they are isolated to the southern portion of pheasant range.”
This is the rarified air of multiple positive outcomes compounding for multiple years for a species that is built for rapid population growth from one year to the next. Granted, South Dakota GFP no longer conducts summer pheasant surveys, so we don’t have the hard evidence of brood survey numbers, but South Dakota GFP has compiled a very compelling set of reasons for the lofty outlook. Load up and go!
It’ll also be an amazing year to hunt pheasants in Minnesota! The 2026 survey-wide pheasant index (89.9 birds/100 mi) was nearly 19 percent greater than in 2025 (75.2 birds/100 mi), according to the August Roadside Survey report compiled by Dr. Steven Woodley, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). The state has now experienced multiple years of major population increases, starting with a 47 percent spike from 2024 to 2025 and this year’s uptick. Hunters harvested nearly 235,000 pheasants last year and that tally will likely be higher this season.
The population increase stemmed from a mild winter with less snowfall than normal and above-average temperatures, followed by a drier spring and summer in all regions except the Southeast. The favorable weather produced ideal conditions for nesting and brood-rearing in a state that often suffers from too much wet and cold weather during the pheasant breeding season. The statewide population is now 82 percent above the 10-year average and slightly higher than the long-term (1955-2025) average. The pheasant population at a level of the 70-year average is remarkable given the landscape changes that have occurred over the last century. These are truly the good old days of pheasant hunting in Minnesota!
The population growth is most pronounced in the West-Central Region. The surveys showed a 74 percent increase from 2025 (132 pheasants per route), which was 134 percent above the 10-year average and 34 percent higher than the long-term average. In the famed Southwest region, the surveys revealed 130 pheasants per route, which was 15 percent lower than last year’s staggering numbers but still 19 percent above the long-term average. Pheasant numbers were up 17 percent in the South-Central Region, and 76 percent above the 10-year average.
In Iowa, the August roadside counts revealed a statewide pheasant index of 22.6 birds per route, which represents a 17 percent decrease from last year’s 20-year high estimate of 27.4 birds per route, according to Todd Bogenshutz, Iowa DNR. The decline was attributed to lower winter survival compared to the extraordinarily high winter survival of the previous year. However, the good news is that chick-per-adult hen ratios this summer were unchanged from last year’s remarkable hatch. As such, while pheasant numbers may be lower, there will still be good numbers of young birds in the population.
The context is also important. Iowa’s pheasant population is still 12 percent above the 10-year average. While it may not be quite the destination it was last fall, Bogenschutz expects that hunters will still harvest 350,000-400,000 pheasants this fall. Bogenschutz likes the outlook for this hunting season: “Counts are down a little from last year, but the 2026 roadside count is still the best the state has seen in the last 12 years. Iowa hunters harvested over half a million roosters last year and the only state with a higher harvest was South Dakota. Hunters will likely see fewer birds in the eastern half of Iowa this year, but hunters in the western half should experience hunting similar to last fall. Wetter weather has currently delayed crop harvest, increasing the potential for standing crops on opening day.”
North Dakota could be the sneaky-good pheasant pick for the year. North Dakota’s late summer roadside surveys indicated pheasant numbers are slightly up from last year, according to R.J. Gross, North Dakota Game and Fish Department. Total pheasants observed are up 4 percent from last year and 57 percent above the 10-year average. The survey showed that broods observed per route (9.6) and average brood size (5.3) are essentially unchanged from last year.
The highest counts came from the Southwest region with 112 pheasants and 13 broods per route, similar to the 14 broods and 115 pheasants observed in 2025, with an average brood size of 5.7 chicks. The Northwest region also saw a seven percent increase in pheasant numbers this year with 10.5 broods per route and an average brood size of 4.7 chicks, but the region has been getting more hunting pressure in recent years. Populations declined in the Southeast region but increased modestly in the Northeast region, particularly in the Devils Lake area.
Reports of pheasant numbers from hunters pursuing sharptails and Huns has been mixed but Gross offered an encouraging and colorful perspective: “I’ve heard people say it’s the most pheasants they’ve even seen and ‘you guys always underestimate’! When I was out duck hunting, I heard pheasants everywhere so I’m more excited for pheasants!”
Nebraska also looks like a great destination for pheasants this fall. Coming off a tough year in 2025 marked by inconsistent and spotty rainfall, the state received above-average spring and summer moisture which produced excellent nesting and brood-rearing habitat. The July Rural Mail Carrier survey revealed a 36 percent increase in the statewide pheasant index, according to Bryan O’Connor, Nebraska & Parks Commission.
The population expansion was notable in that numbers spiked in the Southwest (+17 percent) and Panhandle (+38 percent) regions that are ranked #1 and #2 for pheasant abundance in Nebraska. The surveys showed increases in five of the six regions with the only decline being noted in the Central region. The Northeast region continues to get better each year as populations were up 35 percent from last year and 35 percent over the 20-year average. O’Connor was enthusiastic about the fall hunting outlook: “Reports from our field biologists and the public have been quite frequent on how many more birds they are seeing this spring and summer. It really gets you excited for fall.”
Kansas was poised for another big year of pheasant production given good rainfall in key regions of the state. The main concern was whether the heavy rainfall in May and June that coincided with the peak hatch negatively impacted nests and chicks. Unfortunately, the summer brood surveys confirmed the fears.
The statewide roadside index of pheasants was down by 38 percent, with declines in all four of the major pheasant regions, according to Jeff Prendergast, Kansas Department of Wildlife & Parks. The Northern Great Plains was hit hardest with a 49 percent decline. The Smoky Hills and Southern High Plains were down by 26 percent and 38 percent, respectively. The Smoky Hills had the highest index at 0.24 pheasants per mile, and the Southern High Plains region was close behind. Counties with the highest indices on the 2026 summer surveys were Rooks (0.97), Hodgeman (0.51), and Rice (0.49), all in the Smoky Hills region.
Prendergast explained that the primary pheasant range received well above average rainfall during the peak hatch, which is usually good for pheasant production in Kansas. However, the timing and amounts of rain significantly reduced nest success and brood survival this year. Typically, those losses would be offset with renesting hens in the resulting lush habitat. However, Kansas was then hit with hot and dry summer conditions in July and August that limited the success of these renesting hens. Overall, it was case of too much rain and then not enough.
Wisconsin recently instituted a new system of pheasant summer surveys and its sampling effort is relatively small but the data points to a stable population in the Badger State, according to Taylor Finger, Wisconsin DNR: “The survey results show slightly lower statewide production compared to 2025, but with the sample size being small it looks like the numbers are comparable to last year. Based on anecdotal information and feedback from biologists, it appears that we had a decent year for pheasants in areas where we have good wild producing birds due to the warm, dry late spring and summer. We expect decent pheasant numbers.”
Bobwhite Quail
The heart of bobwhite quail country this year will be a swath of America’s Great Plains grasslands that spans the western edge of the bobwhite range. If you have good pointers and love the pulse of a bobwhite covey flush, circle South Texas to Nebraska on your map!
Texas again will produce some of the Nation’s best bobwhite hunting. The summer survey showed that bobwhite populations are at or slightly above the 15-year average in each of the state’s ecoregions, reported Patrick Schutz, Texas Department of Wildlife and Parks.
The survey revealed 10.17 quail per route in the South Texas region, the third highest count in the last decade. This is coming off a year in which hunters harvested over 333,000 bobwhites in the region. Schutz explains that South Texas experienced extremely dry conditions in the winter, but good rainfall and improved habitat conditions resulted in multiple nesting attempts. The biologists are reporting good quail numbers.
Likewise, quail numbers in the Rolling Plains remained the best of any region with 13.68 quail per route. Hunters harvested over a quarter million quail in the Rolling Plains last year. Schutz notes that dry conditions this spring appeared to delay some nesting efforts and curb nest success. Fortunately, mid-summer rain eased those impacts, and the surveys showed only a slight decline in quail numbers compared to recent years.
Schutz summarizes a mixed bag with some very good local intel: “Dry summer conditions have impacted quail production in some regions of the state. However, the recent rain events and cooler temperatures are a welcome sight. We continue to receive encouraging quail reports, especially in South Texas. Statewide, the biologists are highlighting regional improvements and good quail numbers in Childress, Hall, Kleberg, Shackelford, and Terry counties. Overall, we anticipate fair to good hunting opportunities going into the 2026-27 quail season.”
In Oklahoma, it’s a similar tune with a bit of an unfinished note. The August roadside quail survey showed statewide quail numbers are holding strong at 5.45 quail per route, 72 percent above the 10-year average and eight percent above the long-term (37-year) average, according to Tell Judkins, Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation.
Quail numbers in all regions except the Southeast have remained above their respective 10-year averages. The Southwest and Northwest regions that have the state’s highest quail indices, at 13.68 and 8.00 quail per route respectively, both saw increases from last year, and are above the 10-year and long-term averages. Populations in the Southwest are more than double that of the 10-year average mark of 6.20 quail per route.
The big question is whether the drought that gripped much of the state this summer or the wet conditions in September combined with a fall El Nino pattern will have the greatest impact on quail populations. Judkins was non-committal since the October quail surveys have generally been most accurate in predicting the hunting season forecast: “Drought has continued to affect all of Oklahoma through September. Remnants of Hurricane Polo brought some much-needed rain to the state over the last 10 days. While most of the state got 1-3 inches of rain, some areas saw much higher rainfall. Oklahoma’s October Roadside Surveys will be kicking off soon. Stay tuned!”
This may be the year to take a road trip to Kansas to hunt bobwhites! The statewide roadside quail index was 17 percent higher than in 2025, according to Prendergast. The 2026 summer survey data showed a statistically significant 90 percent increase in the Osage Cuestas region and a large apparent increase of 97 percent in the Glaciated Plains region. Quail numbers in the other regions were all trending up except for the Southern High Plains, which experienced a slight decrease. Quail densities were greatest in the South-Central Prairies at 0.51 quail per mile, followed by the Southern High Plains (0.28) and Smoky Hills (0.25). The highest county-level index was recorded in Kingman County with 1.19 quail per mile.
The harvest of nearly 388,000 quail last year was the highest mark since 2017, and this year will likely be even better. For context, Kansas has the #2 bobwhite harvest in the Nation in most years, behind only Texas, and has substantially more public hunting access for quail with just under 1 million acres of private lands enrolled in its Walk-In Hunting Access program.
Prendergast explains that the excessive spring rainfall came before the peak quail hatch and greatly improved the brood cover and renesting cover for later in June. The summer drought conditions impacted quail in the Southern High Plains, but overall weather conditions were very favorable for bobwhites across most of their range in Kansas. Prendergast is excited about the bobwhite outlook this season: “If you’re hunting Kansas this year stock up on 7.5 shot! The heavy rainfall during the spring shut off before the peak quail hatch and created high-quality brood cover for the quail. We saw increases across most regions for quail populations that were already good last year.”
Nebraska is very intriguing with a big spike for bobwhites. The July Rural Mail Carrier survey showed a 134 percent increase over 2025 and statewide numbers that were 50 percent above the 20-year average, according to O’Connor. Bobwhite counts increased by 176 percent in the Republican region, 102 percent in the Southeast, and 521 percent in the West Platte region from last year. The only drop was a 14 percent decline in the Northeast region. All regions were at least 28 percent above the 20-year average.
O’Connor explains that they received timely moisture this year and that the habitat conditions look good for nesting and brooding. He reports that brood observations have been fairly frequent this year with larger quail broods reported, and that male calling throughout the summer has also been reported, indicative of additional and renesting attempts, which are good signs.
In Iowa, the statewide bobwhite quail index declined by 21 percent, but is still right at the 10-year average, according to Bogenschutz. He reports that the Southwest region has the best overall quail numbers, followed by the South Central and West Central regions, respectively. The best counts in 2026 came from Adair, Crawford, Louisa, Montgomery, Page, Ringgold, and Wayne counties.
Prairie Grouse and Hunts
It’s shaping up to be a tough year for prairie grouse and Huns due to drought conditions across their range but there are a few minor bright spots.
The summer brood survey in North Dakota showed a statewide 16 percent increase for sharptails, but the population is still 31 percent below the 10-year average, according to Jesse Kolar, North Dakota GFD. Brood survey results revealed only 1.1 broods per 100 miles and an average brood size of five chicks. Huns, which had been on a steady climb in North Dakota through 2024, were down by 17 percent statewide again this year. Kolar paints a realistic picture on this season’s outlook: “Sharp-tailed grouse experienced yet another year of poor production, this time due primarily to extremely hot and dry stretches this summer. One perk this year is a slight increase in relative abundance from good overwinter survival.”
In South Dakota, the prairie grouse harvest tumbled from over 99,000 in 2024 to an estimated 53,400 in 2025 due to summer drought conditions, according to Solem. The young-per-adult ratio from last year’s harvest was only 0.70, well below the statewide 10-year average of 1.58. The good news for this year is that the mild winter with reduced snowfall should have led to good over-winter survival and carry-over of adult birds into this year’s nesting season. However, most of the primary prairie grouse range was in moderate drought to abnormally dry this summer, with a few areas in extreme drought. South Dakota GFP predicts a mixed bag with reduced production where drought persists, but some areas may have good production and brood survival. The 2026 hunting tip is to be nimble and pay attention to areas that experienced the most summer rains.
In Iowa, the roadside survey showed that Huns were up six percent statewide from last year, said Bogenschutz. The counts revealed a statistically significant increase in the North-Central region and significant downward trends in the Northwest and Northeast regions. In Nevada, biologists in the Eastern Region noted the Huns were down from last year with only an 0.88 chicks per adult ratio, according to Nevada Department of Wildlife.
Chukars
The annual chukar picture is inherently tied to rainfall and the green-up of the mountain ranges of the Great Basin. Unfortunately, drought conditions had a widespread negative impact on chukar recruitment, and the region was hit hard by massive wildfires.
Nevada is typically the bellwether state for the chukar hunting outlook. In 2026, the chukar brood surveys conducted across northern and central Nevada revealed a statewide average production value of 0.3 chicks per adult, a 73 percent decline in production from last year, according to the Nevada DOW. This is in stark contrast to the fantastic 4.5 chicks per adult recorded in 2024, which will go down as a stellar hunting season. A mild winter resulted in good carryover from last year so total chukar numbers were only down seven percent this year. Nevertheless, two consecutive years of low production will result in very difficult hunting this fall and winter.
In eastern Oregon, the forecast is similar. Trend surveys in Harney County revealed a six percent increase compared to last year, according to the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. The surveys showed 0.8 chicks per adult, a slight uptick from 2025. In Malheur Couty, the trend surveys showed a 20 percent decline from last year and 2.0 chicks per adult. However, the good news is that chukar numbers were 33 percent and 28 percent above the 10-year average in Harney and Malheur County, respectively, so there will be some birds on the landscape.
