2026 Upland Gamebird Hunting Forecast

This fall is lining up to provide the best hunting in decades in key states with the largest populations of several upland gamebirds.

by Dave Smith

I was in the best of our best river bottom pheasant country on a gorgeous fall day, and it had been a good year of production. With two roosters in the sack by mid-morning, I was content and soaking in the moment.

The ringneck exploded up close, painted in full color against a stately cottonwood with its golden leaves fluttering. As it curled into the sky-blue heavens, the swing was smooth and fluid, and the rooster folded at the crack. I instinctively broke open the Belgium Browning 20 O/U that my great uncle had given a wide-eyed child 50 years ago, almost to the day. Kelsi scooped up the rooster and brought it back without a hint of her dozen years. I stuffed it into the sack and began the slow amble across the meadow toward the truck.

It triggered a flood of emotions: Gratitude for the spectacular fall day, appreciation of time with family and friends, and hope for more to come the following season. The thankfulness was etched immediately; the hope would extend over the next nine months. Upland gamebird populations fluctuate from year to year, and I’ve learned not to take things for granted.

As summer now transitions to fall, the questions emerge: What was winter survival for upland gamebirds? Did we get the right moisture and temperatures at the right times during the nesting and brood-rearing season? The state fish and wildlife agency upland game coordinators can answer those questions with a good degree of accuracy based on their models, survey results, harvest trends, and understanding of population dynamics in relation to weather patterns.

So, what’s the 2026 outlook?

It is going to be incredible in some key places! This year stands out as one that will produce some of the best hunting in the last 20 years in the states with the largest populations of pheasants, bobwhites, and prairie grouse.

Pheasant numbers are off the charts in South Dakota and Iowa, and very good in Minnesota, Kansas, and North Dakota. Bobwhite populations will likely be at the highest levels in a decade in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska. Prairie grouse populations are still very strong in the Dakotas. And with some context we’ll share, there’s still a lot to like about the declining phase of the Lake States’ ruffed grouse cycle.

The state fish and wildlife agencies will refine this forecast with their summer brood surveys. We’ll follow up with an Upland Gamebird Forecast Update e-newsletter and an updated set of projections on the website once we have the brood survey results in hand.

Quick Links

Pheasants
Ruffed Grouse
Woodcock
Bobwhites
Prairie Grouse and Huns
Chukars and Desert Quail

Pheasants

This fall is unique in that pheasant population trends are at roughly 20-year high levels in several of the states with the highest annual pheasant harvest, and weather conditions were very favorable in those states. However, there’s no debate as to the number one pheasant destination in the nation, and that’s South Dakota.

Hunters harvested 1.35 million pheasants last fall with an incredible 9.7 birds harvested per hunter. This was the sixth consecutive year in which the harvest has increased in South Dakota, according to Alex Solem, South Dakota Game, Fish & Parks. The scale of the SoDak pheasant boom over the last decade is jaw-dropping: The harvest increased by over 522,000 roosters since the 2017 tally of just under 829,000 pheasants. That’s more than only a couple of states harvest in total.

Solem reports that a mild winter and favorable weather conditions this spring and summer have the state poised for another outstanding pheasant season. “We witnessed very good overwinter survival for pheasants across the state. The primary pheasant range experienced abnormally dry to moderate drought this summer, which isn’t all that bad for pheasants. Pheasants don’t mind it dry; they just don’t like a severe drought. We received some very timely rains, which helped the nesting and brood rearing cover at the right time. I’ve heard a lot of reports of early hatching broods, large in numbers. There’s been some severe localized weather in certain areas so it’s always beneficial for hunters to reach out to any contacts they have in the area.”

South Dakota’s upward population trend, in and of itself, would be a good reason to plan a trip. Add to the equation some favorable weather trends and hunters have reason to be downright giddy about the fall prospects.

Iowa is also lined up for a repeat of their best season in the last 20 years, according to Todd Bogenschutz, Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR). The 2025 August Roadside Survey revealed populations 41 percent above the 10-year trend. Harvest data wasn’t available at press time, but it was clearly a grand campaign for hunters in the Hawkeye State’s 100th anniversary of pheasant hunting.

This year brings more good news as Bogenschutz reports that Iowa DNR’s weather model predicts pheasant populations will be unchanged from last year. Pheasant numbers typically increase following mild winters with springs that are dryer and warmer than normal. Statewide snowfall from December through March averaged 25.6 inches, right at the 1961-1990 average, and spring temperatures and rainfall were both above average. The state climatologist noted that March-May ranked as the seventh warmest spring on record in Iowa. This all adds to the intrigue for another spectacular season, says Bogenschutz. “Last year’s roadside count was the best Iowa has seen in twenty years, so this forecast bodes well for the coming fall. I expect regional differences and our best counts will still likely be in the northern and central regions.”

In Minnesota, it has been a similar trend of pheasant populations expanding in the regions with the highest densities of pheasants. Statewide populations were in the ballpark of the 70-year long-term average last fall and hunters experienced some excellent hunting, according to Roy Churchwell, Minnesota DNR. Last summer’s pheasant index was particularly high in Minnesota’s best pheasant country, the Southwest Region, nearly 40 percent above the long-term average.

Churchwell notes that a mild winter and generally good conditions this spring and summer have the state poised for another step forward. “We had a lot of birds last year and the winter was mild, so we should have had good over-winter survival. This spring was cool across the state, but not cold enough in pheasant country to hurt breeding and nesting. It has been a little dry through the brood-rearing period with only a couple of locally isolated big storms, so this late summer period has been good for birds as well. The weather indicators point to a great season coming up.”

Kansas is coming off a 10-year pheasant population high mark last season and is a very intriguing destination this fall. This spring’s pheasant crowing surveys revealed a statewide index of 12.65 per stop, a 14 percent increase from 2025. The survey showed statistically significant increases in the Northern High Plains, Southern High Plains, and Smoky Hills regions, led by an impressive mark of 25.22 in the Southern High Plains.

Jeff Prendergast, one of the nation’s foremost pheasant authorities, is always quick to point out that spring pheasant surveys measure last year’s recruitment, not this year’s production. However, the summer moisture that produced a good spike last year played out again this summer. “Last year we went into fall with the highest density of pheasants we had seen in a decade. Habitat conditions continued to improve in 2025 across the state as spring and summer rainfall was good again. Precipitation was best in the southwest and south-central regions of the state.”

The main concern was whether the heavy rainfall in May and June that coincided with the peak hatch negatively impacted nests and chicks. It clearly resulted in improved habitat conditions and weedy crop fields that provided excellent brood cover and habitat for renesting this summer. At press time, Prendergast was cautiously optimistic that they’ll see similar or larger pheasant populations this fall in the key regions of western and north-central Kansas.

North Dakota rounds out the Top 5 states for pheasant harvest in the nation, and, like the others, it looks promising. Hunters tallied an impressive 344,975 pheasants last season, down only three percent from 2024, despite last year’s cool and wet nesting season that impacted chick production, according to R.J. Gross, North Dakota Game & Fish Department. Gross reported that this spring’s pheasant surveys revealed a nine percent uptick, indicative of the very mild winter and exceptionally good winter survival. Gross was upbeat about weather patterns during this breeding season. “This spring and summer have been pretty good. Some storms rolled through a few places that will impact recruitment but, overall, it’s been good conditions for nesting. The true picture for the fall will come from our late summer roadside counts.”

The next tier is a mixed bag. Some states are coming off a good year and facing a tough summer while for others it’s flipped with conditions looking better following a year of declining population numbers.

Wisconsin has been a pheasant sleeper state in recent years with gradually expanding populations. The 2026 spring pheasant survey revealed a nine percent decrease from 2025, but the numbers were still 32 percent above the previous five-year average, according to Taylor Finger, Wisconsin DNR. Finger says the summer was very dry, which bodes well for nest success and brood-rearing conditions for pheasants, so he expects decent production. In Nebraska, pheasants have rebounded in recent years, and the April Rural Mail Carrier Surveys revealed an 11 percent increase statewide. Pheasants were up across all management units and statewide for both the five- and 10-year averages, according to Bryan O’Connor, Nebraska Game, Fish & Parks. Notably, pheasant numbers in the Southwest region were up 30 percent from last year and nearing the 20-year average. O’Connor reports that pockets of drought have gripped certain portions of the state while other regions have had good moisture.

In Montana, pheasant populations have declined sharply over the last few years due to persistent drought conditions. Spring surveys in the Northeastern region revealed populations slightly below or at the long-term average, according to Mitchell Carpenter, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks. In the North-Central Region, Matt Strauch reports populations are at or above the long-term average. Northern Montana received excellent rainfall in June that improved brood-rearing habitat, so the biologists were hopeful of better production this year. Montana’s upland gamebird seasons now include some limitations for nonresidents the first 10 days of the season – so check the regs.

Pheasant populations continue to expand in Oklahoma, and their spring surveys for pheasants showed a slight increase in spring crowing calls over last year, says Tell Judkins, Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation. In Illinois, pheasant production has been relatively flat in recent years, but conditions look good this year, says Don Kahl, Illinois DNR. In Indiana, wild pheasant populations are limited but stable where they exist, primarily in northwestern Indiana. Willow Slough Fish & Wildlife Area is a great place to get on some wild birds this fall, says Andy Byers, Indiana DNR.

Bobwhites

This may be the year to hunt the western swath of the bobwhite range.

In Texas, bobwhite populations are at their highest levels since the epic boom years of 2015-’17, and the South Texas region has been providing the bulk of the harvest in recent years, reported Patrick Schutz, Texas Parks & Wildlife Department. For example, using 2025-’26 harvest data, the latest that is available, showed that more than 291,000 (56 percent) of the 520,000 bobwhites harvested in the state were taken in South Texas. The 2025 survey revealed 12.70 quail per route, which was above the 15-year average, and it looks good again in 2026, says Schutz. “South Texas experienced an extremely dry winter, which caused some concerns, but that has given way after multiple rain events and habitat conditions are looking great. Our district biologists and landowners are reporting seeing very good quail numbers throughout this region. Many are excited for the potential for another quality quail season.”

It’s a less rosy forecast for the famed Rolling Plains. After two excellent years of excellent production, Schutz says the Rolling Plains region was dry this spring and summer, which likely delayed nesting efforts and impacted production. However, good carryover will likely result in decent quail numbers going into this hunting season.

This is shaping up to be a memorable year for bobwhites in Kansas! The spring whistle count survey revealed the highest bobwhite population in over 25 years, according to Prendergast. The statewide tally of 3.70 quail calls per stop represented a 24 percent increase from last year. The quail index spiked by 59 percent from last year in the Southern High Plains region to a staggering 6.92 calls per stop. Statistically significant increases were also observed in the South-Central Prairies (+15 percent) and Glaciated Plains (+21 percent). The Southern High Plains, South-Central Prairies, Flint Hills, and Smoky Hills all had a quail index that was at or near 25-year highs.

The fall outlook hinges upon whether there was too much moisture, says Prendergast. “Conditions are currently promising as we had extensive widespread rain in late spring and early summer. The wet conditions created excellent brooding conditions in crop fields across much of the state. The statewide population index was the highest we have recorded for this survey, and good production has the potential to create great quail densities across much of the state in the fall. However, the timing and intensity of the rain was not ideal. Rain has been heavy throughout much of the nesting season, which could limit nest success and brood survival.” Stay tuned on Kansas.

In Oklahoma, quail numbers increased by 68 percent statewide last year and are slightly above the long-term average, said Judkins. Bobwhite numbers have increased each of the last five years and the 2025 counts revealed the third highest population in the last 20 years. Judkins says the forecast of an intensified El Nino weather pattern should bring moisture and cool temperatures, and those conditions are strongly correlated with high October quail survey numbers. Judkins expects excellent quail hunting this fall, particularly in the Northwest region, which has the state’s highest quail densities.

Bobwhite populations in Nebraska are at the highest level in two decades. The spring whistle count survey showed a 13 percent increase over last year, 40 percent higher than the 10-year average, according to O’Connor. The Northeast, East Central, and Republican regions again had the highest counts. Bobwhites are at or near 25-year peaks in Northeast, East Central, Southeast, and Republican quail management zones. O’Connor says extreme western Nebraska suffered from drought, but the quail range received good summer rains. It could be a fantastic year to hunt bobwhites in Nebraska.

Quail numbers are up in Missouri compared to last year due to a mild winter, says Beth Emmerich, Missouri Department of Conservation. Summer rainfall was average in the north, but the southern portion of the state experienced some heavy rainfall events so the best quail hunting will likely occur in northern Missouri. Quail populations have expanded in Illinois over the last two years, and it’s shaping up to be another good year, says Kahl. The watersheds that feed the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers in west-central Illinois will provide the best hunting. Bobwhite populations are stable in Indiana, says Byers.

The Southeast look promising for bobwhites this year with reports of good summer rainfall and habitat conditions across multiple states. Bobwhite numbers in Arkansas reached a 20-year high last year, said Clint Johnson, Arkansas Game & Fish Commission. Last winter’s ice storms south of I-40 may have negatively impacted winter survival but conditions this summer were good. In Georgia, Dallas Ingram, Georgia DNR, reports very good hatches and expects a solid increase in fall bird numbers. Ingram suggests hunting areas that have been burned in recent years. Mississippi received abundant rainfall this summer and vegetation should be excellent for cover and insect production, says Rick Hamrick, Mississippi Department of Wildlife. In Florida, spring started off very dry, but the summer rains may support some good reproduction, according to Greg Hagan, Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission.

Quail numbers in North Carolina remain low due to limited habitat, and production was curtailed by severe and extreme drought conditions, says Hannah Plumpton, North Carolina Wildlife Commission. The outlook is similar in South Carolina due to drought, but hunting could be slightly better than last year in areas that received timely summer rains, said Peeples.

 

Ruffed Grouse

There’s some good under-the-surface news about ruffed grouse in the Lake States. The drumming surveys mostly declined this year as we head toward the trough of the 10-year population trend cycle, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The context of long-term population trends, consensus that drumming surveys are not a great predictor of fall populations, and reports of favorable spring and summer weather conditions paint a different picture. It may be a fine year to strap on the boots and follow the bird dogs in the northern woods.

In Wisconsin, the 2026 ruffed grouse drumming survey revealed a statewide index of 1.34 drums per stop, an 11 percent decline from the previous year, according to Chris Pollentier, Wisconsin DNR. The North region had the state’s highest ruffed grouse abundance with 1.89 drums per stop, also an 11 percent decline from last year. Here’s the interesting piece: Even with two years of decline from the 2024 peak, this spring’s mark is the fourth highest statewide index in the last 30 years! That’s a good enough reason alone to hunt the Badger State this fall. Further, the summer weather was good, according to Pollentier. “This spring was wet with some parts of the state experiencing record rainfall that may have hindered initial breeding activity. However, the latter half of spring and much of the summer has been quite dry, which is generally favorable for ruffed grouse.”

It’s a similar story in Minnesota as the statewide population continued to decline from its amazing peak in 2024. The ruffed grouse drumming survey showed a statewide average of 1.7 drums per stop, which is down slightly from the 1.8 drums per stop recorded last year, according to Charlotte Roy, Minnesota DNR. The counts in the Northeast (1.9) and Northwest (2.4) were slightly down and slightly up, respectively from the 2025 surveys. However, the 2026 results were still in the top third of statewide averages recorded over the last three decades, so Minnesota’s ruffed grouse population coming into the spring compared very favorably to that in many years.

According to Roy, spring and summer weather patterns were a mixed bag. “The ruffed grouse range in Minnesota is pretty big, so the weather varied a lot over that range. Localized areas can vary a lot in the amount of rainfall received. May was pretty dry and June was wetter, with some areas receiving one or more heavy rainfalls when nests and chicks were vulnerable. Yet, most of the ruffed grouse range in Minnesota (by summer) was in moderate to severe drought. I expect that some areas will have had good conditions for chicks. Hunters should try multiple areas to maximize their opportunity to get into birds.”

In Michigan, the drumming survey results were up slightly from last year, according to Adam Bump, Michigan DNR. Bump reported that they anticipated a decline in the drumming rates since they are at the lower end of the population cycle, so this was unexpected and good news. He says the outlook for 2026 looks like it should be similar to last year, possibly slightly better. Given that the drumming count increase was quite small, he expects hunters to have a similar season as last year this fall.

Ruffed grouse populations in New England are difficult to pinpoint this year. Maine has a new upland gamebird biologist and didn’t have any survey data to share, but forecasts are for an average ruffed grouse hunting season, according to Alexander Fish, Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife. Fish reports that May and June precipitation was consistent with long-term averages, so expect average hatch and brood survival. Minor drought in portions of southern and central Maine may influence distribution of food resources in late summer and early fall.

In New York, the 2025-’26 hunting season flush rate declined to 0.33 flushes per hour and this spring’s drumming survey data was slightly lower than last year, reported Michael Muthersbaugh, New York Department of Environmental Conservation. Last spring was very rainy in some areas and that led to low ruffed grouse productivity in 2025, but this spring’s weather conditions were at the 30-year average. Muthersbaugh expects grouse hunting to be a little better than last year.

Pennsylvania ruffed grouse numbers have been on a roller-coaster, says Haley Keff, Pennsylvania Game Commission. The 2024 flush rate of 1.10 flushes per hour was the best in a decade. However, the wet spring of 2025 resulted in the highest West Nile Virus vector index since the WNV-induced population crash in 2018. Low productivity last year led to a fall flush rate of 0.82 flushes per hour, the lowest observed in the past five years. However, Keff says this spring’s conditions were more favorable so we may see another turnaround this fall. In Kentucky, weather conditions were very favorable this spring, including above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall in Jackson and Laurel Counties, reported Zak Danks, Kentucky Department of Wildlife Conservation. The warm and dry conditions contributed to advanced spring green-up and insect activity, which will be favorable for grouse nesting and brooding success.

South Carolina ruffed grouse numbers should be average this year, reported Dan Peeples, South Carolina DNR, but he expects some good habitat to emerge in future years in areas impacted by Hurricane Helene. In Ohio, the state’s typical ruffed grouse hunting season was suspended due to the long-term population decline, said Mark Wiley, Ohio DNR. In 2026, the only grouse hunting opportunity will be through controlled hunts in which a limited number of site-specific permits were issued via a lottery.

 

Woodcock

The 2025 American Woodcock Population Status released by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service last August, the most recent population status report, showed that the 2025 woodcock singing ground survey index was similar to the previous year’s estimate in both the Eastern and Central Management Regions. The report shows that hunters had a tougher season in 2024-’25, harvesting 56,900 woodcock in the Eastern Region and 154,200 woodcock in the Central Region. Harvest in the Eastern Region was 23.3 percent less than the long-term average and 27.6 percent less than the previous year. Harvest in the Central Region was 18.5 percent less than the long-term average and 3.9 percent less than the previous year. The report shows that the top states for harvest were Minnesota (51,200 woodcock), Wisconsin (42,000), Michigan (37,900), North Carolina (12,300), Louisiana (10,200), and Maine (9,600).

Minnesota looks like the nation’s top woodcock destination this fall. It is the only state with an increase (1.02 percent) over the long-term (1968-2025) average for woodcock on the signing ground survey. In addition to the fantastic harvest in 2024-’25, Roy reports that she has heard very positive reports about the 2026 woodcock hatch in Minnesota. Likewise, Wisconsin has a flat-line long-term trend for woodcock on the singing ground survey, and Pollentier expects the dry summer conditions to be favorable. Michigan DNR has a new ruffed grouse and woodcock dashboard that revealed a flush rate of 1.8 woodcock per hour last season, says Bump. In Pennsylvania, Keff says woodcock numbers are stable with an index of 1.63 males/route, near its highest level in decades. In New York, hunters flushed 0.96 birds per hour last season, slightly higher than 2024, according to Muthersbaugh. He expects similar flush rates this fall.

Prairie Grouse and Huns

The prairie grouse hunting picture is a bit murky heading into fall.

First, the context: Prairie grouse numbers were off the charts across the northern Great Plains as recently as 2024 when hunters harvested nearly a quarter million sharptails across a three-state region. Many hunters started envisioning those once-in-a-generation dizzying numbers as the new normal, but reality set in last summer and production dropped back down to the historic range. However, hunters took over 110,000 sharptails in the Dakotas alone last season, which is nothing to scoff at.

South Dakota had several outstanding years leading to the best harvest in decades in 2024, with hunters taking nearly 90,000 prairie grouse. Lek counts were sky-high last spring, but the massive production that we envisioned didn’t materialize. Solem reports that hunters harvested 53,422 prairie grouse in 2025.

Solem was cautiously optimistic about 2026 but acknowledged drought may again impact production. He said the southwestern portion of the prairie grouse range was teetering in and out of drought status and production could be hampered by less than normal residual cover. However, other portions of the range in western South Dakota have had some moisture, which should provide good brood habitat.

In North Dakota, it’s a similar story. Hunters sacked up 55,539 sharp-tailed grouse and 50,445 partridge last fall, down 24 percent and 25 percent, respectively, from the previous year. The declines were attributed to drought conditions that gripped western North Dakota last summer, said Jesse Kolar, North Dakota Game & Fish Department. Kolar reported that this year looked promising but late season drought was a concern. He was uncertain at press time of how sharptails will do this summer but noted that Huns can still see good production if the drought isn’t too severe. Kolar reported that while Huns have long been viewed as a bonus bird by hunters, the population has grown to a level at which more people are coming out to specifically hunt partridge.

In Montana, sharptail populations declined steeply due to last year’s drought in Region 6 of northeastern Montana. Lek counts were down and sharptail numbers are below the long-term average in the eastern half of the region, said Carpenter. However, sharptails have expanded in the western half of the region over the last three years and are now slightly above the long-term average. Montana FWP doesn’t survey Huns, but Carpenter says widespread distribution and above average harvest the past couple years indicate they are doing well. In Region 4 of north-central Montana, Matt Strauch reports a mild winter and good conditions this spring and summer. He expects it to be a very good year for Huns. In Region 7 of southeastern Montana, the sharptail lek counts showed a 42 percent decrease compared to last year, but the population is still eight percent above the 10-year average, said Justin Hughes. Brood sightings have been very scattered.

Utah has had some good partridge hunting in recent years, but the hot and dry summer in Box Elder, Cache, and Rich County resulted in lower Hun numbers this year, said Heather Tally, Utah Division of Wildlife Resources.

 

Desert Quail and Chukars

This year looks like a challenging year for desert quail and chukar hunters in the west due to widespread drought, but there will be some pockets of good hunting.

Texas may offer the best desert quail hunting due to strong scaled quail populations in west Texas. Over the past three years, the Trans-Pecos region has had above average rainfall and great habitat conditions, said Schutz. “Our biologists in the Trans-Pecos report quality quail numbers and expect a really good hunting season this fall. Quail populations in the High Plains and Edwards Plateau have shown steady increases for the past three years based off the annual quail roadside surveys due to good habitat conditions that will continue to support good quail numbers.”

Washington had a good season for California quail and chukars last year with harvest up by 11 percent and 17 percent, respectively, said Sarah Garrison, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. Garrison says they had a mild winter followed by a warm and dry spring, which resulted in good overwinter survival and spring hatching. The best conditions are in Klickitat County in south-central Washington.

Utah suffered from hot and dry conditions this summer, which led to decline in chukar, Hun, and desert quail populations across most of the state, said Tally. The Tooele District in central Utah might be worth a look. Tally expects average to a little below average chukar numbers in the West Desert mountain ranges this year.

In New Mexico, harvest declined significant last season for Gambel’s quail and Montezuma (Mearns’) quail, but scaled quail harvest increased slightly. The multi-year drought continued this spring, but there’s a sliver of good news, explained Casey Cardinal, New Mexico Department of Wildlife. “We had rains in May, June, and July across the eastern portion of the state, which likely led to successful scaled quail broods this summer. I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll have decent scaled quail numbers in eastern New Mexico this year.”

The forecast is bleak in Arizona, the perennial number one desert quail state. Hunters had a very rough quail season, and bird numbers were below average for desert quail and extremely low for Mearns’ quail coming into the spring, said Larisa Harding, Arizona Game and Fish Department. Conditions were extremely hot and dry all spring, but the state did receive some decent rainfall this summer. Harding was hopeful for decent production of Gambel’s quail due to the summer rains but stressed that Mearns’ quail numbers were so low that even with a good monsoon season, the recovery would be slow.

In California, the last two winters have been warm and dry with precipitation below the 30-year normal, which will likely result in below-average populations of quail and chukars, says Katherine Miller, California Department of Fish and Wildlife.