2023 Upland Gamebird Hunting Forecast: E-BLAST UPDATE
This update to our 2023 Upland Gamebird Hunting Forecast incorporates the results of late summer upland bird population surveys conducted by state fish and wildlife agencies. This data measures recruitment of birds into the fall population, providing a more finely tuned forecast than was possible at press time for the print magazine in mid-July.
The mid-summer inclination of an upland gamebird population rebound is now official! The data is in and it’s going to be a very good year in some key states for pheasants, prairie grouse, Huns, bobwhites, and chukars.
The state fish and wildlife agencies that conduct roadside surveys or other brood surveys in August measure the most vital element of upland gamebird hunting success – the current year’s production – and the results of those surveys are released in September or early October. This final piece of data can lock in or turn the tables on our mid-summer projections. That’s why we tune up our Upland Gamebird Hunting Forecast about this time each year by incorporating the results of those summer surveys.
The factors that drive a population upswing – a mild winter followed by well-timed spring and summer moisture – played out nicely in the heart of pheasant country and some large swaths of the West. Interestingly, this year’s data shows that pheasant popuQlations remained strong or even expanded in some regions hit by a pretty hard winter. However, the lingering effects of a severe drought limited the recovery in other states. This year we pay particular attention to pheasants because the population trends were dramatic in some key states that conduct summer surveys!
So, what’s in store for 2023?
Here are a few highlights: It is going to be a fantastic year to chase roosters in North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, and Minnesota as all four states showed impressive increases from what had been a good year in 2022. The population levels in the heart of pheasant country are some of the best in recent memory. Likewise, sharp-tailed grouse and Huns have also skyrocketed in the northern Great Plains. From southwestern Minnesota to southern Iowa and throughout the Dakotas, it looks like a year to ring the bell and load up the bird dogs. Epic. And for those winter wanderers, the wet winter and resultant green-up produced birds at dizzying levels so this is a great year to hunt chukars in Nevada, as well as portions of Oregon and Utah. Here’s the full breakdown!
PHEASANTS
North Dakota may be always viewed, tongue-in-cheek, as the second-best state in the Dakotas to hunt pheasants. However, this year it looks like a true destination. The late summer brood surveys revealed a 61 percent increase in total pheasants and a 70 percent increase in broods observed, according to Rodney Gross, North Dakota Game & Fish Department. Statewide, the average brood size was 6.3 chicks, indicative of high recruitment. The Northwest region led the way with 13.5 broods and 113 pheasants per 100 miles, up from 11 broods and 96 pheasants in 2022. In the Southwest region, the surveys revealed 9.8 broods and 86 pheasants per 100 miles, up from five broods and 48 pheasants in 2022. In the Southeast region, the population wasn’t as high but the increase from last year was very impressive with 5.4 broods and 49 pheasants per 100 miles, up from five broods and 29 pheasants in 2022. Gross sums up the grand opportunity: “Hunters should expect to find similar or higher numbers of pheasants than last year, with good numbers of hatch-year birds in their bags.”
In Iowa, the August Roadside Survey showed even better production than the favorable mid-summer projections, particularly in northeastern and northwestern Iowa. The surveys revealed a statewide average of nearly 23 birds per route, a 15 percent increase over last year and the highest level observed since 2015, according to Todd Bogenschutz, Iowa Department of Natural Resources. Bogenschutz expects 2023 to be one of the best years of pheasant hunting in recent memory with a statewide harvest of approximately 400,000 roosters. “The bird counts were better than we thought in northwest and northeastern Iowa. The population in the northeast is the highest that region has seen in 24 years. We haven’t had too many years since 2012 that areas were considered excellent, but there are some swaths of counties listed as excellent in northwest and north central Iowa – and over half of the state is considered fair to excellent.”
Minnesota experienced a 10 percent pheasant population increase statewide, but the real story is what happened in the heart of the state’s best pheasant country in the Southwest and West Central regions. According to Tim Lyons, Minnesota DNR, pheasant populations exploded in the Southwest with 116.8 birds observed per 100 miles of surveys, a staggering 101 percent increase from 2022. To put it in context, that’s 83 percent above the 10-year average and 8 percent above the long-term average – remarkable pheasant numbers in this modern era. The pheasant index in the West Central region also increased by 38 percent from last year with a tally of 63.2 pheasants per 100 miles. Lyons reported that these regions of the state should offer very good pheasant hunting this year: “The birds clearly benefitted from drier conditions this spring. I’ve heard from area staff that this is the most birds they’ve seen in recent memory in the Southwest and West Central regions.”
Finally, all signs point to a spectacular year in South Dakota. We don’t have survey data from this summer to report because South Dakota Game, Fish & Parks no longer conducts August roadside or brood surveys. However, this much is fact: The pheasant harvest last season was a whopping 1,158,000 birds, 10 percent higher than the 10-year average and the highest since 2016. The average bag for the season was nine pheasants per hunter, more than double the rates observed in most other states, according to South Dakota GFP. Most importantly, the state was generally drought-free this summer, a marked improvement from conditions of recent years. It’s certain that South Dakota will lead the Nation in pheasant harvest, and it very well could be a season for the ages. Kevin Robling, GFP Secretary, puts it in plainspoken terms. “South Dakota is the greatest state in the country to pheasant hunt. The harvest numbers show exactly why. Hunters are going to find abundant birds across the state all season long.”
In Kansas, the hope this mid-summer for a pheasant rebound from the low levels of last fall did not materialize. In fact, even last year’s bright spot, the Smoky Hills, saw a decrease in pheasant numbers this year. This year’s surveys revealed some slight improvement in certain areas of the High Plains region of the western third of the state, but the numbers were greatly reduced by the wretched drought of 2022. The recovery will simply take more time, says Jeff Prendergast, Kansas Department of Wildlife & Parks. “Intense drought conditions throughout 2022 reduced pheasant populations and the available nesting cover for 2023. Precipitation across most of the primary range this summer greatly improved habitat conditions for chicks. This should have improved the survival of broods that were hatched and could result in some localized improvements where nesting cover was maintained. However, lack of nesting cover and low populations across most of the state prevented any major improvements in densities this summer.”
In Nebraska, pheasant populations declined by 19 percent statewide, according to Bryan O’Connor, Nebraska Game, Fish and Parks. Pheasant indices from the 2023 July Rural Mail Carrier Survey revealed that pheasants were down 48 percent in the Panhandle and 16 percent in the Southwest, the two top regions for pheasants in Nebraska. The good news was that Northeast and Central regions saw 39 percent and 41 percent increases from last year, respectively, and populations exceeded the five-year averages in those regions. O’Connor explained that habitat conditions are more isolated within these regions, but where quality cover exists, hunters should find better pheasant hunting opportunities.
SHAPTAILS, HUNS, AND PRAIRIE CHICKENS
This is the year to hunt prairie grouse and Huns in the northern Great Plains! The combination of steadily growing populations and ideal weather conditions this spring resulted in populations of sharptails and Huns exploding across the northern tier of the Great Plains and down into South Dakota. For the first time in many years, the upland game experts are calling out opportunities to hunt Hungarian partridge rather than simply experience Huns as an incidental gamebird. This is new and unique, and it presents a grand opportunity for running pointing dogs.
South Dakota is poised for a remarkable prairie grouse campaign coming off an excellent season last year. In 2022, hunters harvested 63,615 prairie grouse, which was well above the 10-year average and was one of the best years since the early 2000s, according to South Dakota GFP. Factor in the favorable drought-free summer and the state is poised for an incredible season this year. Based on the very optimistic report by South Dakota GFP, it’s time to hit the prairies: “The 2023 prairie grouse hunting outlook is expected to be better than 2022. Abnormally dry conditions were limited in early to mid-spring in much of western SD and alleviated by snowmelt and timely rainfall. The majority of central and western South Dakota has recovered from drought and is seeing very good grassland habitat conditions. Although the lingering cooler spring temperatures and snowpack from the winter may have delayed nesting efforts in some areas, we expect the current favorable range conditions to contribute to good prairie grouse production, resulting in increased hunter success.”
North Dakota may be even more intriguing given the eye-popping results of the late summer brood surveys. Gross reports that sharptails were up 116 percent statewide as 29 sharptails were recorded per 100 miles, with an average brood size of six. Huns spiked by an incredible 200 percent with 36 partridge observed per 100 miles, with an average brood size of 11. For the first time, more Huns were observed than sharptails on the brood routes. The partridge explosion is newsworthy, according to Gross. “Partridge numbers are tied with an all-time high, dating all the way back to 1992. And for sharptails, it will also be a great year. Hunters should expect to find a good ratio of hatch-year grouse in 2023. Much of the increase in sharptail observations was driven by a rebounding population in the southwest district.”
The partridge boom appears to have also spilled over into neighboring states. In Minnesota, the roadside surveys revealed 4.5 partridge per 100 miles, nearly double the 10-year average of 2.4, according to Minnesota DNR. Bogenschutz reports that the statewide partridge count in Iowa increased significantly, by 43 percent, over last year’s levels. In Montana, Huns aren’t monitored through any structured surveys but the 2022 partridge harvest in northeastern Montana was well above average for the area and increased substantially over the previous year, reaching a 20-year high, and weather conditions were good for recruitment this spring, according to Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks. Biologists in the eastern region of Nevada continue to encounter increasing numbers of Huns, says Shawn Espinosa of Nevada Department of Wildlife. This year’s young-per-adult ratio of 5.2:1 is down slightly from last year’s exceptional year but still represents a promising trend of partridge on the landscape. Try the Independence and Tuscarora Ranges and public lands around the flanks of the Ruby Mountains. Finally, In Oregon, Huns were up to 2.2 per route, triple the level of the five-year average.
BOBWHITE QUAIL
The bobwhite quail story of 2023 is a mixed bag of modest population increases and decreases, in some instances within a given state. Texas Parks and Wildlife Department staff always get my nod for the most colorful quail quotes and this year’s from John McLaughlin, Texas PWD Upland Game Project Leader, sums up the situation best from today’s heart of the bobwhite range. McLaughlin shared this beauty of a quip from one of their biologists: The extreme optimist might even buy a dog or book a hunt.
The quail picture in Texas has improved over the dire circumstances of the drought-stricken past couple of years. Granted, the excitement for a boom year after a great spring largely faded over the last few months of relentless heat, but the Texas PWD quail surveys showed solid gains in several regions. Notably, the South Texas region surveys yielded 9.59 quail per route, above the 15-year average and nearly double the 5.26 quail recorded last summer. South Texas led the state by far last year with a harvest of 144,108 bobwhites, so the uptick this year is one of far-reaching positive consequences to Texas quail hunters, according to McLaughlin. “Habitat conditions were good to excellent to begin the spring but diminished in quality as we entered the summer. Excellent spring rainfall east of I-35 such as in Kleberg County set the stage for the nesting season, with counties west of I-35 following suit shortly thereafter. The summer was hot and dry but despite the heat, the region made significant gains early on and was buoyed by late rain showers in August. Nesting and brood reports were good in Atascosa, Bee, Jim Hogg, and McMullen Counties and bumblebee size chicks were spotted into July and August suggesting an extended nesting season. Unlike other parts of the state, South Texas had residual bird numbers to begin the year and therefore a foundation from which to build. We expect an uptick this year and hunting opportunities should be plentiful across the region.”
The Gulf Coast Prairies followed a similar pattern with 9.60 quail observed per route compared to 2.50 last year. The Rolling Plains are recovering from a multi-year drought, but the region received good spring rainfall and the cover held up throughout the summer. McLaughlin reports that the modest gains and good ground cover bode well for 2024, but he expects only scattered pockets of good hunting this year, improving north and west throughout the region. The High Plains counts of 3.44 quail per route was a marked uptick from last year’s dismal 0.78, but still below the 15-year average of 6.29 quail.
In Oklahoma, the August roadside quail revealed a statewide quail index that was up 46 percent from the previous year, from 1.53 to 2.23 quail per route, says Tell Judkins, Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation. The state experienced a transition to an El Nino weather pattern that brought much-needed rainfall to quail country. The gains will be noticeable on the landscape, but bobwhite populations are still 56 percent below the 34-year average and 24 percent below the 10-year average of 3.11 quail per route. Judkins points out that good cover along roadside ditches may have prevented some quail observations so he’s somewhat optimistic that the October surveys may show even higher quail populations. The bottom line is that, like in Texas, the quail population is on the rebound and things could get very good, very fast if favorable weather patterns continue.
Nebraska is a mixed bag for bobwhites this year. The July Rural Mail Carrier Survey showed increases in the North Central (+57 percent), Southeast (+12 percent), and Republican (+6 percent) regions while populations declined in the East Central (-17 percent), Northeast (-13 percent), and West Platte (-50 percent) regions, says O’Connor. “The Southeast, East Central, and Republican management regions should support the state’s highest quail densities. Overall, quail numbers remain below those observed during recent peak years (2015-2018), but numbers in the Southeast, East Central, and Northeast regions are nearing those levels. Statewide, rebounding populations should provide better hunting opportunities this fall.”
Kansas has one of the strongest bobwhite populations in the country and Prendergast was hopeful that the excellent summer rains they experienced would boost an already solid population. However, the brood surveys revealed a modest statewide decline for bobwhites. Prendergast expects that the bobwhite harvest will still be among the best in the country. He expects the best hunting to occur in the central regions of the state and the Flint Hills, with some quality hunting opportunities scattered throughout the remaining regions.
In Iowa, the August surveys did not show a quail population increase that was expected given favorable weather conditions. The statewide bobwhite index was 0.8 quail/route compared to 0.9 quail/route in 2022. This year’s index is 23 percent below the 10-year average and 42 percent below the long-term average. Bogenschutz says the best quail hunting this year will likely occur in the South Central and Southwest regions, particularly Adams, Madison, Taylor, Union, and Wayne counties.
Missouri will offer better quail hunting this year given that the statewide index of 1.13 quail per 30-mile route is 29 percent higher than last year, according to Beth Emmerich, Missouri Department of Conservation. She reported that the mild winter and extremely dry conditions during the nesting season were favorable to quail recruitment.
CHUKARS
The grand finale of this year’s E-Blast Update is perhaps the most exciting news! If you have never hunted chukars, this is the year to come West and immerse yourself in the hallowed experience of pursuing abundant chukar populations in gorgeous rimrock canyons under blue skies. On years like this one, which come along maybe once in a decade, it is the true western bird dog event. Here’s the deal.
Nevada will offer some incredible chukar hunting this winter. The Nevada Department of Wildlife’s summer chukar surveys resulted in a statewide average production value of 6.0 chicks per year, a 62 percent spike from last year’s respectable value of 3.7 chicks per adult. Nevada DOW reports that production over 4.5 young-per-adult results in expanding populations and seven of the eight counties surveyed this year achieved that threshold, capped by Churchill (10.5 chicks per adult), Mineral (9.3), Eureka (8.1), and Humbolt (7.2) counties. The eastern half of Pershing County and many areas in northeastern Nevada, such as Elko County, will also provide quality chukar hunting opportunities. Pershing County was slightly below the threshold with 4.1 chicks per adult but had the highest number of young chukars surveyed of any county.
Shawn Espinosa, Nevada DOW’s longtime upland gamebird expert nails it: “This chukar and quail season is shaping up to be one of the best in a decade or more given the production that we have observed and the carryover of birds from 2022 in the central and northwestern portion of the state. It should be a great season!”
In Oregon, it is a similar forecast, according to Mikal Cline, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. Their summer surveys indicate chukar populations are approaching the highest level in the last decade and this season could be one of the best nearly range-wide within the state, according to Cline: “The Baker District continues to be a bright spot, and the Malheur, Harney, Mid-Columbia, and Umatilla districts are expecting one of the strongest showings in several years. Look for chukars in the large drainages and unforested rimrock country of eastern Oregon.”
Finally, chukar numbers are very good in central and portions of northern Utah, says Heather Talley, Utah Division of Wildlife Resources. Talley reports that Tooele County offers some of the best chukar hunting in Utah with several populations in a variety of mountain ranges. The rocky slopes west of I-15 contain the highest densities of birds. The surveys conducted this summer show that the chukar numbers in the West Desert ranges and Manti and Nebo areas are above average this year. In northern Utah, the heavy snow resulted in lower over-winter survival, but the wet spring provided great breeding and nesting conditions, and spring hatches were above average in Box Elder County. Hunters can also locate birds in the western part of Cache County and on portions of the Bear River Mountain Range.
